I haven't done that publicly before. But I want to do these "guesstimates" for myself (I refuse to call them predictions) and come back to them after the bull market pops to see how many I nail. And if I am doing it anyway, I thought I'd better share and have some feedback from you too.
I don't have any scientific method of reaching these numbers, but I do take into consideration what history has shown us, where a long enough history helps us.
I will give in each case 3 guesstimates:
- pessimist
- realist
- optimist
where the "realist" guestimate is sort of a middle ground and the only range given.
Bitcoin
During the previous cycle, bitcoin price grew more than 11x from the start of the bull market to its end (that is if we consider the bull market started at 6k and not higher).
The question is: where will we consider the stat of bull market this cycle? Will it be 16.5k? Unless the crypto market turns worse the following months, that is most likely the starting point.
Now let's see my guesstimates for bitcoin:
- pessimist: max 82k (less than 5x)
- realist: 82k-116k (5-7x)
- optimist : 116k+ (7x+)
HIVE
HIVE is more volatile than bitcoin. Last cycle it went from almost 11 cents to 3.43 dollars, which means a 31x price appreciation. This cycle the range will be narrower, at least on the downside. We still don't know where HIVE will start the initial bull run at, but for the exercise purpose, I'll use the price from today: 27c.
We also don't know what kind of interest we will have for HBD during the bull market and if it will be on locked tiers or free to access like today. During the previous bull market we didn't have interest on HBD in savings, so this will play a role limiting the growth potential of HIVE during the hype period.
Now let's see my guesstimates for HIVE during the hype period:
- pessimist: max 2.16 (less than 8x)
- realist: 2.16-3.24 (8-12x)
- optimist : 3.24+ (12x+)
SPS
SPS doesn't have a cycle under its belt. It was born in the second phase of the last bull market. So there is no historical reference we can use. There were major tokenomics changes since its creation, so it's a wildcard regarding future evolution.
If new products launched by Splinterlands, and the renewed demand from the bull market, plus eventually the flywheel effect and the new utility added to SPS will have the combined effect to reverse price evolution for SPS, then it has a major potential. But my guesstimates in this case are simple guesses. I'll also use today's price as a starting point: 0,016.
Let's see my guesses for SPS during the hype period:
- pessimist: max 0,08 (less than 5x)
- realist: 0,08-0,24 (5-15x)
- optimist : 0.24+ (15x+)
LEO
Leo is another wildcard. With changes to tokenomics (less inflation), buy backs, more utility added to LEO all the time, and likely huge numbers of new users added in the future more than a year, and the continuous developments, there are lots of positive things to consider. The question is how much of them will translate to price action. The historical price evolution of the token is irrelevant, given all the changes.
Probably one of the things going on against it is that most of the tokens are staked, and there is not enough liquidity for any significant player to buy in.
Let's see my guesstimates for LEO during the hype period, starting from 0.035, the recent low):
- pessimist: max 0.35 (less than 10x)
- realist: 0.35-0.70 (10-20x)
- optimist : 0.70+ (20x+)
Care to share some "guesstimates" of your own or simply comment on those I shared?
None of these price levels and comments constitute investment advice.