Recently, we had what I'd call an abundance of announcements on Hive about new (and old-ish) games that have significant developments. I assume they are not the only ones we will be hearing about these months.
I understand where developers/owners of these games are coming from choosing this timing, at the beginning of the bull market. That gives the games higher chances of liftoff, sustainability, and profitability.
How about players/investors? How do we decide in which games we invest in and which we pass? Or what will be the strategy in the games we invest in?
There are often games with stretchy information at best asking for funding (for you to buy packs, for example) before you know much about them, not to mention having any sort of playable version.
In most cases, going in early matters a lot. The risk of the early adopters is rewarded. After all, I purchased a tract of land in Splinterlands based on some initial sketches that partially came into reality over 3 years later, and will probably fully be released after 5+ years since the land presale. So, I understand.
But how do we decide where to invest then? Like VCs? Or like gamers? Decisions to invest in Web3 games seem to be more like an investment decision and less like an entertainment decision and have been so for a long time.
I'll need to come up with a plan to see how much of my liquid HIVE/HBD should I dedicate to the games and other bull market investments on Hive I decide to take. Right now it's zero, at least until next year. The strategy will likely be to have a full and early recovery of investment in all cases since my main objective long-term is HIVE Power, and I won't lose track of that. Afterward, I can play from profit, if it is the case.
For me, it is important if the gamer in me thinks a game could garner some interest (I've often been mistaken about this because people treat it like an early investment and not a game - so did I up there), if it seems to be a sustainable model, or if the owners have no idea how to set up a proper incentivization system. And how are development and maintenance paid for? It's also important how it is launched, which often is related to the first point. The team may be important in all of the above aspects, but it is important to understand how much is their real involvement and how much are they front-end brands.
In most cases, it is not profitable to join a game a good while after it's been launched, so I generally try to avoid these situations. If I don't catch the first wave, it's a "pass" from me. Pure investment decision... but games encourage that.
Some games, like Splinterlands (but not only), try to compensate by having special leagues for players who hold new assets to not be at a disadvantage compared to early adopters who hold all types of assets, while they develop new use cases for older assets (on land in the case of Splinterlands). While it will always be more profitable to join from the beginning, this way late arrivals have a chance to compete, at least among themselves.
Of course, a higher investment can usually also compensate for the time early players had to develop their accounts.
How do you choose which gamers you invest in and which you don't, on Hive? What are your criteria?