I was thinking today about how sick and tired everyone in crypto is of this bear market and how we want it to end sooner and the bull market to begin.
If we don't hear things like "it's been the longest bear market so far" people say that "it's been the coldest crypto winter ever"... Or something like that.
And if memory serves me right without checking again it's been neither. A two-year bear market, followed by 1 bitcoin year and 1 alts year, seems pretty "standard". Give or take, they won't respect the calendar for sure. We are close to 2 years, but not there yet.
Anyway, this post doesn't offer any prediction regarding when the bull market will start, instead I want to start a discussion on how we perceive the passing time differently depending on our state of mind and our involvement.
Did you ever have a bad day? Obviously, you did, as all of us. Did you wish it was over quicker? How did that work out for you? Did that day seem longer instead? I bet it did.
Let me tell you a secret. Maybe it's not a secret and you already know it and apply it yourself. Let's see.
If you think about time, no matter if we are talking a certain hour in a day or a day in a week or a month in a year, time will seem to pass incredibly slow.
Even 5 minutes will seem like an eternity if you stay with your eyes on the clock and follow the seconds passing.
Now... Get busy, preoccupied by something else during that time, and tell me if 5 minutes seemed enough or they passed too quickly.
Here's another example. You meet with an acquaintance and her young child you haven't seen in a while (years). Could one of your reactions be: "How fast they grow!". Maybe her mother would disagree if her child has been a naughty one. If you haven't seen the young one in years, time appeared to have gone much quicker. If you are the person taking care of the child and dealing with all the naughty things he does, you'll probably find time the passing much slower.
With these examples in mind, do we realize that our desire to have the bear market end sooner actually influences our perception on the length (and severity) of the bear market?
I don't understand yet why the reverse may not be true. Because despite what we wish, bull market passes much quicker than many expect. And yet, market participants often try to guess when the top would be reached. And that's thinking at time too. Why doesn't perception of time slow down in this case? Because of excitement?
I don't think that's it. Because if you are excited to meet with friends and you're counting hours and minutes until the meeting, they don't go faster, they go slower, like in the previous examples.
Maybe the reason is because during the bull market the dominant interest is on growing prices, dreams of financial independence and such, and less on when the bull market will end. After all, most people get caught unprepared by the end of the bull markets. Hmm, that's an explanation that would make some sense to me. Can you find a better one?
Time may or may not pass uniformly (too deeper topic for this post), but our perception of passing time can distort measured time significantly.