If you haven't taken a dive into LVL's numbers, you're in for a major shock! This is a deep dive, so get your granny panties on...
One of the most attractive things about bitcoin is its scarcity. It is the scarcity in supply and demand that causes perceived value to increase, and thus cost to increase. I have written more than a few times about a new game coming to Hive soon-PsyberX. The WhitePaper @psyberx/official-white-paper-for-psyber-x-and-the-psyber-x-metaverse states that 50% of the LVL token will be held, for various purposes that don’t matter for my post’s purpose. The other 50% will be sold on the open market for playing the game, buying NFTs, etc. This is where I want to focus my attention.
Introducing the top 12 LVL holders:
@saltyreptile currently holds 332,973,504 LVL. We’ll call it 333M. 250M will be held for purposes as stated in the WP. That leaves 83M LVL to be sold on the market. The current bottom sell price is 0.00449 Hive at the time of this writing (2/17/2022 11:18AM PST). The total value, then, in market terms is $372,670 Hive of the remaining coins to be liquidated. 167M LVL are currently held by accounts other than the main liquidating account.
Let’s think about this for a hot minute...in depth.
83/250=0.332, or 33.2% of the supply of what will be sold is available for purchase. To be a whale, you need 1M LVL (my opinion), to be in the top 100 of the LVL Richlist, you need more than 202,011 LVL. In order to hold 1% of the supply, you need 2.5M LVL. In today’s values, 2.5M is 11,225 Hive (0.00449 Hive/LVL).
While none of this is financial advice, I want to point out some interesting facts:
Splinterlands has 514K active users in the last week, according to DappRadar, with Axie Infinity at 7th with 87K users:
Look at the “Balance” and “Volume” of these games. Keep this in mind when I share these numbers from when I was doing my research last night:
Splinterlands tokens:
| Coin | Cost ea | In Circulation | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPT | 0.003 Hive | 121M Circulating with 100B Supply | 363K Hive |
| SPS | 0.13 Hive | 200M Circulating, 9Quadrillion Supply | 26M Hive |
| DEC | 0.003 Hive | 2.1B Circulating, 9T Supply | 6.3M Hive |
If all Splinterlands’ tokens (in circulation only) are added up, you get 32,663,000 Hive’s worth or value. That’s with 2.421M tokens all added up in circulation. That averages to 0.01349 per token.
Now, Splinterlands has been around a while. We’ll grant them that. 0.5M Active users is respectable. It’s number 1! It’s also an online card game.
LVL will be comparable to Call of Duty or Fortnite-it will have a first-person shooter (FPS) setting and it will be a world of other games as well. It is described as a metaverse. So it is appropriate to look at Fortnite’s numbers:
According to https://gamertweak.com/player-count-fortnite/ , in 2020, the monthly active players hit 80.4M. There is no listing per week. Splinterlands is ~585,620 per DappRadar. That means Fortnite has 137x as many active users as Splinterlands. It seems FPSs attract much more attention than online card games. Over 100x as many.
Let’s do some PsyberX/LVL potential math. None of this is financial advice, but it is research…
PsyberX tokens:
| Coin | Cost ea | In Circulation | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| LVL | 0.00449 Hive | 250M with 500M Supply | 1.1M Hive |
If LVL were equal to Splinterlands’ combined value of 0.01349 per token, it’s value would nearly triple. If PsyberX were to have 500,000 active users per month, like Splinterlands does, and all 250M LVL were spread out evenly, each player would only have 500 LVL. That’s 2.245 Hive. Sounds very affordable…and you’d have as much as the average player.
Now consider that there are only 83M coins left. If each person wanted to buy ONLY 500 LVL right now, that would only allow 166,000 new account holders to purchase it.
Remember what I said about supply and demand?
Where will you be when the game is released by the end of this year? Will you be holding 2.245 Hive’s worth with 500 LVL? Or will that 500 LVL be closer to the 0.01349 value and be worth 6.745 Hive? Or do you think LVL will have the potential to be worth $1 or more due to scarcity and that 500 LVL will be worth 500 Hive or more? I know where I’ve placed my bet…but it’s exactly that…a bet. The game hasn’t come out yet.
Incentives for holding LVL:
For every 200K LVL you own, you are eligible to receive 1 of 10,000 Limited edition crates. Based on a post from @psyberx, you get 1 crate per 200K LVL held over a 60 day average, each month, until all 10,000 crates have been dispersed. Because the marketplace release has been delayed, @psyberx has increased that number to 2 crates per 200K LVL held. Each crate in the marketplace (not the Limited Edition crates airdropped) will be for sale at $20 USD (purchasable with Hive, HBD, or LVL only, mind you). Each crate will also have 5 NFTs inside. This puts the value of each NFT at the very onset at $4 USD. Do you think that the value of the airdropped crates will be $20? Do you think 5 years down the road that an original, Limited Edition airdropped crate will sell for only $20?
Based on information from https://nonfungible.com/market/history/splinterlands the average NFT from Splinterlands sold for $64.90 last week. The average for the last 30 days is $48.94 and the last year is $43.28. The average Gold Foil NFT according to https://www.splintercards.com/tool-market.html?fo=1 is $48 at the time of writing.
If PsyberX has NFTs that do half as well, at $20 per NFT, that’s the equivalent of $100/crate or a 5x return. Conjecture, I know. Past results don’t mean future results will be the same.
At 0.0049 per LVL, it would cost 980 Hive, or about $1000 USD to qualify for an airdropped crate, if you could get all 200K LVL at the 0.0049 Hive price.
I’ve done the calculations from https://leodex.io/richlist/LVL and have found that if you exclude @saltyreptile, you will find 151,342,399.97 LVL held by the top 103 LVL holders, which all have 200K LVL or more. Extrapolating the fact that each account holding 200K will get 1 crate per 200K LVL, rounding down the math…(for instance, @ecoinstats holds 3,684,035.37 LVL. They will not get 18.xxx crates, they’ll get 18 crates-not fractionalized)…there are 728 crates that will be handed out based on today’s math. At 2 crates per 200K LVL (I don’t know how long that bonus will be applied), that means 1456 crates are spoken for, leaving 8,544 crates up for grabs still. Assuming that you buy 200K today, it takes 60 days to qualify as I read the announcement, so when you get your 2 crates (assuming the bonus continues), 4,368 will have been handed out. That also means you’ll likely get another 5-6 crates, potentially by the time the 10,000 LE crates run out. If the total value of a LE crate is worth $100 using the SL information, you will have received $700-$800 worth of crates for buying $1000 worth of LVL.
Also, if you hold 200K LVL, you get a 30% discount on the $20 USD crates when the marketplace opens. I believe there are 100,000 of those crates available, but I could be mistaken. You’d pay $14 instead of $20.
There will likely be other benefits to holding LVL long term. I don’t know what they are or if there will be…but based on my projections, a 200K LVL purchase of approx. $1K at 0.0049 per LVL looks like it could have the potential of yielding $700-800 in crate value and at SL equivalent per token, of 0.01349 Hive per token, 200K LVL would be worth 2,698 Hive.
You do your own due diligence. The PsyberX WP states that LVL is not a currency or an investment. Get advice from a financial planner who has your best interests at heart…Good luck. See ya at Zeelis.
all images used with permission or taken from publicly accessible screenshots