Hello fellow Hivians!
Just 2 days ago I wrote an overview post about Thetan Arena, the newest hostest NFT game on the block, which you can find here. Since that post, a critical announcement has been made by the developer Wolffun Games.
There is still a lot of debate given the ambiguous wording about if players that created their accounts after this announcement but before the event are eligible but all signs point to yes per Mods on their official discord.
The devs decided to go with this release sale as a sort of 'thank you' to its current players. Since release, this game has been plagued with bugs and certain critical systems like parties which enable you to play with your friends are still bugged as of now.
This announcement obviously frustrated some people as flooding the NFT market with new cheaply bought heroes will of course devalue all existing heroes and many people that bought at the prices that had started to stabilize are now at a point where they can't sell at breakeven. The other thing this sale did was tank the value of THC as THC is created by NFT heroes playing games. This was a 1-2 punch as now it means those previously overpriced NFTs that would have made profit at the $0.70 THC mark are now well in the red at the current $0.45 mark. I unfortunately find myself within this group but that is okay because I enjoy the game and I'll just look at it like I do going to the movies or buying any other game.
Now lets talk about what this sale means for those of you that have not already bought in:
The price of these new boxes being $150 for a common and $300 for an epic means each hero purchased through this sale will breakeven or make a profit as long as the price stays at or above $0.34 for the epic box and $0.17 for the common box. This is slightly different as you could pull a common (35.5%) from an epic box (see below for the drop % breakout). Assuming an epic box pulls an epic however, breakeven is all the way down at $0.15.
As for how I came about these numbers , I am using a simple formula to multiply an assumed win rate of 50% by the # of battles a hero is eligible to earn from by the earning amount that the hero can earn. Here you can see the breakout for each type of hero at the $0.15 figure and the current market rate of $0.52. (Wait a minute... it went up since I started writing)
At current market prices either option is obviously a clear profit maker assuming you are average at the game. The challenge is that as we talked about earlier, flooding the market with new NFTs means the THC market will indirectly be flooded as well. The devs obviously thought about this as their announcement also stated that 100% of the sales will be used to burn THC which should hopefully offset the clear THC tank that was bound to happen otherwise.
I do want to bring attention to a few concerns I have with this game:
- The devs very clearly have shown that they are not afraid of messing with their economy. This action had drastic impact and it largely hurt their early adopters both because the pre-sale users were unable to take advantage of their commitment to buy ahead and the early users that bought secondhand. If the devs continue with these types of actions I forsee them having trouble getting users to commit the kind of money required to keep the economy going.
- If you join the official discord one of the first things you'll notice is the massive number of admins and mods yet a massive absence of their presence within the discord. They very rarely interact with their community.
- As a sequel to point 2, although the admins do not interact much they DO in fact actively monitor the discord and mute users that have anything critical to say about the game or economy. I have been muted multiple times from their discord and not once have I managed to get a response from a team member. I have even submitted a service ticket through their official ticketing system with no reply. This is a terrible thing for a blockchain community given blockchain in its nature is about free speech and the sharing of ideas.
Anyways, to wrap up I wanted to say that despite my concerns, I'm still quite bullish on this game as it truly is fun to play. Matches are short yet the game still satisfies that itch that I got when I quit playing serious MOBAs.
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