Splinterland's: Maybe the time has come for the Splinterland assets pump.
I am keeping a constant watch on the DEC market for past month and any of the news related to the Splinterland's and the DEC token. At current, DEC is the stable coin in the Splinterland Game shop. When I say it is stable coin in the Splinterland Game shop, I mean that irrespective of USD value of 1000 DEC in the open market, Splinterland's team (will refer to simply "Company" onwards for sake of clarity) always honor the price of 1 USD per 1000 DEC whenever the team sell their articles. This company policy actually give a "buy" pressure to DEC as it is always beneficial to buy DEC from market if it is under peg and purchase items using DEC from Splinterland Game shop.
If we observe the DEC chart in the USD for past month, it seems that DEC is maintaining the upward momentum, with it's peak reaching close to the peg and it's lows are higher than the previous low. If I am correct, this peak is generated when company was topping up the DEC in the account for their daily operations. Anyways, Actual question arises that why I am becoming more optimistic for Splinterland's assets and tokens at current?
So answer lies in the below points and it is the mainly the launch of the cards set of Conclave arcana and various other measures that company has taken that are supposed to fuel the game tokenomics.
Conservative Card set math shows that not enough DEC in liquid available.
At present Splintercards shows that total circulating DEC is 5404 million. With Conclave arcana launching up in next month , player will use DEC (if DEC is under peg) to buy the packs. Company was able to sold more than 900000 rebellion packs and considering 4000 DEC is used purchase one pack, it simply come to 900000*4000 = 3600 million DEC.
But if you observe the left side of the chart, we will observe that Player,Market/Pools and Land Stake has 1061+267+1485 = 2813 million DEC. This simply shows we do not enough DEC available in market for the conservative estimate of the pack sale. Also , I do not feel that player are going to unstake DEC from land, so this can give serious buy pressure to DEC. Also at time of Rebellion, CHAOS cards flooding in the market (and still) that put a serious dent on the Rebellion sales. But now CHAOS are getting rotated out of Modern, expectation is Conclave arcana will get more sales than the Rebellion pack.
DEC is now more scarce.
Almost all the avenues that used to mint DEC ,no longer exists. Latest, with the Leaderboard prices are getting replaced with the Glint, one more avenue that give players DEC is now closed. With DEC is getting burned in each market transaction and other game operations, it demand cannot go to zero (assuming it reaches peg and player started using other currency in Splinterland's shop). So once DEC reaches peg, it by default give more value to the assets (i.e Card backed by DEC) and will cause SPS burn to mint the DEC for the daily operations and SPS burning can give boost to the SPS price and ultimately it will reflect in the cards and items in the game as SPS is now Play2earn currency of the splinterland. So player can do more purchase of Splinterland asset to earn more valuable SPS.
I expect above reason to drive the DEC to peg and ultimately boos the prices of Splinterland's assets.
Risk factors.
What I have done above is more like a prediction based on my maths and of course there are certain reason that can be considered as risk.
1. DEC supply do not going down linearly.
Even with all the burn in market transactions, DEC supply is not going down linearly. One of the reason is given for that players are burning the cards for generating the DEC. I do not have any data to check on this hypothesis. Also on the same note , 5404 million represents the circulating supply of DEC, not the locked supply of DEC in the cards, which can be burned for DEC ,increasing the circulating supply of DEC.
2. If Sales results do not match expected math.
I am assuming that Conclave Arcana will have more sales than the Rebellion packs as huge overflooded supply of CHAOS will be rotated out of the modern format. But what if pack sales got even lower than the Rebellion pack sale value?
My 2 cents.
With all the prediction and risk, I am considering not to sell my DEC at all, a mistake I did last month and unfortunately with the dip in Hive price in USD and increase in DEC price in USD yielded me overall loss. Also at this point of time, I will need my DEC to purchase the Conclave arcana pack. It will make sense to buy packs from Splinterlands shop at the current juncture because "sell order" of Rebellion pack in Secondary market is above $4 USD and I expect conclave arcana pack will not be going to cost more than $4 in the shop, instead talks is going in the community to launch cheap packs so that it can boost pack sales.
This is all for today , but if you like to read more of my Splinterland content then you can find the link below.
Link to my previous but recent splinterland's post.
Splinterland's : My honest review of the Survival mode.
Splinterland's: I am feeling lucky in the game today.
Splinterland's: Step by Step guide on creating and renting custom sets.
Splinterlands: Start of new era in Splinterlands
Splinterlands: It is time to stack DEC.
Splinterland's: Cards that can be earned only.
Splinterlands: Will Training Lead me to the higher Leagues?
Join the game.
If you want to play splinterlands then you can join it here
I saw a few of the players joined the game using my affiliate link and then stopped playing after few battles. If you have any difficulty in playing game, do not hesitate and join the game discord. It is really helping community and contact me here or on discord, I will definitely review your game for your better game experience.