Why does it feel like altseason has been a complete lackluster?
Simply put, it has objectively under performed as opposed to 2020/2021, so the feeling is just a representation of that performance. It is quite clear when looking at the Crypto Total Market Cap (exclusing top 10). We can see here that Alts have essentially not gained any value for almost 4 years (!). The market cap is currently sitting at 316B and in April of 2021 it peaked at 329B. Last time we had a look at BTC.D and while that is an important chart as well, we can't really get a good feeling for Alts and where they stand without looking at their MC. Let's dive in:
We can see a 1-2-3 pattern that seems predictive for ushering in the Altseason. Just like last time the MC briefly broke out to the top before getting rejected. When this happened in 2020 it had a 60% correction! But this was mainly due to the Pandemic at the time. Nevertheless, the "3" wave we are currently in reflects the same kind of movement. What came next is clear: The Altseason started in April of 2020. Overall it saw an increase of up to 6500% in the following 2 years and peaked in late 2021.
This time is quite different
Alts have simply moved sideways for nearly 4 years. Sure, there was the usual bear dip and recovery - but since then the MC has not really gone up. This is evident by the almost horizontal red resistance for the current cycle. Last time it pointed downwards and once it broke out of it, the MC increased very rapidly. But this time this breakout has yet to happen.
Is time running out? Another difference is that we have less than a year for Alts to peak. That is if we assume the peak will occur in late 2025. The vertical blue lines have indicated the peak for the last cycles and if the main 4 year cycle remains, it should peak in 2025. But this would leave Alts only 10-12 months to make significant gains.
The feeling we have that things are not moving forward and we are stuck is highlighted this this almost 4 year hiatus in which MC has not really gone up. This has led to frustration in pretty much every alt coin (except for memes, but they do not move the MC in this chart by a lot).
What now?
I don't really doubt that the MC will finally break above the current resistance. It is almost inevitable with a pro crypto admin coming next week (to name just one factor). It also seems risky to bet on a lengthening of the 4 year cycle. Not that it won't happen at some point in time, but so far the trend has been clear: as soon as BTC goes into bear mode, alts bleed unproportionally more. So either BTC itself would take longer to peak, extending the bull into 2026 or Alts would breakout out of their established pattern. Both seem somewhat unlikely.
But does this mean that Alts essentially only have less than a year to shine? It almost seems like that is the most likely scenario. In that case Alts would have to have a big rally to make up for almost one year of stagnation or it could simply be a dud... Another cycle of under performance?
Conclusion
If Alts have a similar performance to the last cycle they would reach a MC of around 15T. It's indicated by the blue line crossing the vertical blue line at the end of 2025.
But it also seems that every cycle has diminishing returns compared to the previous one. If so, the MC could more likely peak at only around 2-5T.
So there you have it: Altseaon has officially not even started yet - but it may not be an over performer either.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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