Hi traders, Bitcoin is walking the proverbial tight rope.

Bitcoin.

The $6k level has been defended once again, this time bouncing off $5800 right on a mini-volume well:

Interestingly the price has now made its first higher low ($5800) since the latest dip ($5700) which could indicate a reversal or more realistically some type of consolidation leading into September when the much anticipated CBOE Bitcoin ETF is meant to be approved or rejected by SEC.

Seal_of_the_United_States_Securities_and_Exchange_Commission.svg.png

For some insight on how the SEC handles cases specifically regarding to crypto, I'd recommend you listen to these two podcasts:

and:

Another, less publicized but nonetheless very critical event to look for is the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) recommendations to the G20 countries regarding crypto and money-laundering in October. The nation-states which are members of the G20 have already committed to implement the FATF guidelines regarding the regulation of crypto-currency so I wouldn't be surprised to see the market react to whatever the FATF come up with.
Until all this regulatory and institutional uncertainty clears out, it's unclear if Bitcoin will or won't make another leg down. One the one hand we're starting to see something that looks very much like an accumulation range at $6k:

... furthermore, the number of shorts is way up and could lead some whales to pull another short squeeze on the market...

... which last time around resulted in a monster green spike on the daily:

On the other hand the market could very well be at a pause before it completes another leg down:

... in which case my dip buy target will be $5k right at the bottom of this large volume well:

Strategy.

A stronger bounce from $6300 combined with Bitcoin meek higher low (5700/5800) could be a sign that $6k is actually where the market has found fair value for Bitcoin and would probably translate with Bitcoin being range bound between $6k and $7k until we hear from the SEC in September.

However, if Bitcoin start rolling over before the end of the week and breaks below $5800 then chances are $5000 will be the next area to look for a bounce play.

Until then,

FØx.