Hi HODLers, Hiveans and Lions,
Tomorrow is a big day for the stock and crypto markets. We finally have the January, 2025 Inflation numbers (also called CPI numbers).
If this number is at consensus or lower, rates cuts and BullMarket might be back soon!
Consensus is at 2.9% YoY and some subcomponents of it will be looked at closely. Mostly Rent/RE and Food. These two components hare one of the biggest of the overall inflation basket and are usually more sticky and hard to lower. I believe the Real Estate part might have eased a bit.
I have been taking some bets on Prediction Markets for the upcoming number.
I believe that the inflation is behind us. I do understand that going back to 2% is going to be difficult but it seems like the worse inflationary pressures are behind us.
I have taken some positions on the January 2025 CPI number:
- No to Above 2.9% (which is where consensus is). Payoff is 40%
- **No to Above 2.8% (Risky but good payoff 9 to 1 if it hits)
I have also taken some longer ones:
- No to CPI >3% any month of 2025
- no to CPI > 4% any month of 2025
Exampe of the CPI January 2025 CPI Market
What do you think? US CPI over or under 2.9% in Jan 2025!?
Stay safe