So I got some great feedback on my previous article:
How Low Can Bitcoin Go? I say 21K is the absolute bottom!
Hence I decided it needed a little follow-up.
First things First
Some people misunderstood my intention. I am not expecting Bitcoin to bottom out at 21K at all. That 21K is the doom scenario, that is what happens when huge changes will impact the global market. If things remain as crazy as they are today, don´t hold your breath for that 21K.
Then what?
Then what? You mean as what do I consider realistic.....well we are living in crazy times and realistic right now is pretty relative. I mean the world is in turmoil and I do not see the end of it, it´s like it just started. The world has not been as weird as it is today since the cold war ended.
First that pandemic and all its weird side effects, we witnessed things happening in the so-called Free World that nobody considered possible in the summer of 2018. We witnessed things in the so-called not-so-free world that went beyond sci-fi.
We accepted one threat, and we are learning to live with it...or at least in the so-called free world, we are for now.
But before you even got a chance to start feeling 'normal' the next crisis is knocking at our front door. And those knocks we can´t ignore. Now I am not going to go into that geopolitical conflict. For now, I just focus on the economic impact.
After years of struggling due to having our global economical process impacted by reduced labor and reduced manufacturing, it's now impacted by the sanctions. Sanctions hurt both sides just as hard, and true nobody has ever died from sanctions (at least not in the short-term), for the global economical situation it´s not really helping.
Still, it´s something we can deal with.... but what we can´t deal with is an all-out Nuclear Attack. Why not, because we have no experience with it. No, I don´t want to fearmonger but I don´t remember times when the rhetoric has had a nuclear holocaust WW3 narrative as it does today.
Why do I bring this up?
While not to draw attention to this narrative, but more as an indicator of what the size of an event must be to drive the BTC price to that 21K.
We saw it at the start of the pandemic, a global crisis spreading humongous amounts of fear worldwide. These are the type of events that cause the world to panic sell and BTC to reach the absolute bottom.
Current Expectations
With regards to my current expectations, I still do not see WW3 happening, but we have never been closer to it happening than today.
If it happens, forgive me for saying this, it would be a great time to buy the dip.
I also don´t expect the next pandemic to be treated as the severe threat that the world saw when Covid reared its ugly head.
So let´s stay rational and hope the leaders of this world will too.
In that case, I expect Bitcoin to go as low as 33K.
Personally, I have my buying bids in at 35K and my honest expectation is that we only need a little catalyst to trigger the supply crunch of Bitcoin liquidity on the exchanges. I know this supply crunch has been on everybody's radar for months but we have never been closer during those months than we are today.
That crunch would trigger a huge pump to the upside.
The 30-day change in the Bitcoin Exchange Balance has hit negative levels seen very few times in the last 2 years. And every time it hit -100K we pumped.
That pump needs just something to set it off, for example, the FED not raising 50 points, but only 25 points in May. Or a simple dip to 35K, because retail has been buying the dip religiously these last 30 days, but extending over the last 6 months.
The balance held by addresses with <10 BTC has soared to 2.08m BTC. It’s important to note the growth in the balance of addresses with 0.001 – 0.01 BTC and 0.01 – 0.1 BTC, increasing by at least 2% in 30 days.
That would be my rational expectation, but what proof do we have that we live in a rational world?
Feel free to follow and like my rambles, these are just my vision and no financial advice have a great day!