Today I'm reviewing long term forecasts on Russell200, S&P500 and FTSE100. I have short positions on all of those 3 instruments. I've opened them TOO EARLY and currently they are in red :(
I have 3 scenarios for Russell
- Short term it will stop around the support line I've added to the chart
- Longer term - if it will repeat the fall from 2007/08 (60% contraction from the current price)
- Total market collapse scenario (90% price reduction)
For FTSE100 I have only one price prediction which will be the same move as 2007/08 - aprox 50% reduction.
I've heard opinions that the market could go much lower, but as I'm based in UK I'm totally biased and I do not feel or couldn't imagine that it will be possible for FTSE to go lower than bottom of March 2009.
And finally S&P500 - Looking on my chart I could expect 3 scenarios:
- It still could go up and reach the resistance (I think it is very unlike scenario)
- 20% reduction will not surprise me
- 60% reduction will be a disaster
- 90% reduction would be am incredibly high drop (Henry Dent thinks it's possible)
Please let me know what are your thoughts on my charts and price prediction.