When it fails, it does seem to be more often a draw than a loss. The home advantage should already be considered due the the calculations for attack and defence strength but it's certainly worth looking into.
Betfair, and I believe, most other bookies offer the option of betting on home+draw or away+draw, obviously with a reduction in the odds: there's likely still value bets to be found betting that way.
Another thing to try would be calculating the expected goal difference and including that in the consideration if a bet would be worthwhile.
I've almost worked out how to get odds for each scoreline too and will try and add that in soon, if I can.
I'm mostly concentrating on the Crypto trading code at the moment, I've never worked with GUIs before now, apart from simple VB stuff, and I'm finding that quite a trial. As soon as I get some progress there (or get so frustrated with it, I need to give up for a while) I'll get back the the footy.
I will be keeping my predictions going for now, at least until the pot runs dry. It might just be an unlucky spell and it'll be all winners from now on....
Later. :-)
RE: Soccer Predictions for 01/10/2017