Here's my unprofessional price analysis on SME...
Don't get all upset with me over this, I'm not trying to FUD the project, and I hold a lot of SME so I actually hope that I'm wrong about this.
I base my analysis on the following factors:
I'm using the old ONG token, its utility, and it's tokenomics as a starting point. Which means our starting point is $0.02 for a utility token that used to power the entire SoMee ecosystem.
The supply of SME is 11x what ONG was. So I'd immediately divide the price by 11. Quick maths: $0.02 / 11 = 0.00181818
We moved to a blockchain with 1/1000th of the market cap that the old blockchain had. Which means there's 1000th of the amount that could potentially spill over into our token from its surrounding ecosystem. Quick maths: 0.00181818 / 1000 = 0.00000182
We now have 2 options for powering up on the platform. Users no longer really need to use Somee's utility token, they can just use HIVE instead. Which is actually a safer bet, since it has higher volume, more users, higher market cap, more demand etc. I'll go easy and only divide by 2 here, since there is a 50% chance that someone would just power up HIVE instead of SME. Quick maths: 0.00000182 / 2 = 0.00000091
We still have about 1 year of massive, massive, massive, massive sell pressure built up. The entire existing userbase has had no access to their money for a whole year, and tons of them are waiting to dump at least SOME of those tokens. This sell pressure didn't exist nearly as much on the old token. I'll be nice again, and just divide by 2... even though I think dividing by 5 or 10 would be more suitable. Quick maths: 0.00000091 / 2 = 0.000000405
There is also the learning curve of HIVE blockchain, and its ecosystem. But, I'll stop dividing now since my final price will end up at 0 if I keep going.
There's also a couple other things worth noting:
Somee is not in its final form. In the future, there are plans to have something similar to "wrapped SME" on other blockchains. If/when that happens, it will open up the SME token to much more potential capital, it will remove the need for having a HIVE account to use Somee, it will add more volume and expose us to the userbase of other blockchains.
If Somee somehow manages to bring in a ton of new users, then we should still see a ton of new people powering up. People who were not here prior to 2021, which means new money that could drive the price up... possibly a lot, depending how many users Somee is able to bring in.
So there are some positives here, but these things are in the future... my analysis is mostly based on the EXISTING factors that we have here today.
All that being said, I've powered up a good portion of my SME, and I absolutely will not be selling anything at these prices.
I've actually been buying a bit more on the dips, and if it keeps going lower, I'll keep buying more. Because I do believe that the development team will deliver on those other blockchains in the future. The "mega influencer" marketing stuff, we will have to wait and see, I'm not going to bank on that but I think if the platform is good enough, it will sell itself anyway.
Anyone still reading? What are your thoughts? Am I crazy? Are you HODLing? Are you SODLing?