As usual, when there's a big trade, people are talking about who won the trade.
When it comes to Russell Wilson, I'm going to generally say that both teams won, at least at the moment. Time will tell us who ultimately made the better decision.
Still, let's look at the reality of the situation.
The Broncos are getting Russell Wilson and a 4th round pick. The Seahawks are getting two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks, a 5th round pick, Noah Fant, Drew Lock, and Shelby Harris.
Wilson didn't have a great 2021 season. Part of that was due to injury. One could also say that he was simply angry at the Seahawks' organization. The offensive line was awful. The defense wasn't good.
By contrast, the Broncos allowed the third fewest points of any defense in the NFL. The Broncos have offensive weapons like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and K.J. Hamler. Yeah, the Broncos are losing Fant, who is a young weapon at tight end and Harris, who is a good, veteran defensive tackle; but, the Broncos were clearly a quarterback away from being a contender.
The Broncos have also been awful at drafting quarterbacks. They haven't had stability at the position since Payton Manning retired. They're in a division with the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the Raiders, all of whom have established quarterbacks. The Broncos are in a window to make another run.
What's more, the Broncos have a lot of cap space. It'll suck for them to lose Fant and Harris; but, they can find replacements in free agency. They may even bring back Von Miller.
The Seahawks are in the toughest division in the NFC and they weren't in a position to compete. Before the trade they really only had five good players - Wilson, Lockett, Metcalf, Wagner, and Adams. Within a day, Wilson was traded and Wagner was released. So, Seattle's three best players are two recievers without a quarterback and a safety without a supporting defense. The reason why the Seahawks didn't have a 1st round pick this year was because of the trade for Adams that went to the Jets.
My assumption is that the Seahawks are tanking in the same way that the Raiders did when Gruden took over. They're dumping their talent for draft picks and cap space and hoping to get a substantially high draft pick next season to land a quarterback.
So, I wouldn't be surprised if Lockett, Metcalf and Adams are on the move, too.
Lockett is going to be thirty this year; but, he's still got gas in the tank with a relatively low cap hit. I think the Seahawks could get a 3rd round pick for him from a team that's looking at a Super Bowl and need more depth at reciever - the Rams, the Bills, etc.
Metcalf has one year left on his rookie deal. So, he'll be cheap for the next season. The Seahawks may be able to bring in a 1st round pick, at least a 2nd round pick for him.
Adams may actually still be worth two 1st round picks.
So, the Seahawks probably just accepted that they're gonna suck this year. They could be drafting in the top five next season as well as having a ton of extra picks to start to make the team viable again in the near future.
In the meantime, the Broncos are set to make a run at a championship.
Overall, my assumption is that this is going to be a net win for the Broncos. There are teams like the Bills that seem to consistently do well in the draft. Neither the Seahawks nor the Broncos draft well. So, I look at this trade as the Broncos getting an established quarterback in exchange for an mediocre quarterback, a tight end, a defensive tackle, and five lottery tickets.