It's tough betting during the off-season. Club and international friendlies are hard to predict because you don't know which team would show up. To beat the lull, i was wondering if you could make money betting on the heavy favorites?
Typically, I prefer to bet on outcomes with odds above 2, but in times like these, maybe it is better to go with the heavy favorite? I decided to look at odds between 1.10-1.20. You know, the bets that only suckers place.
Paper trading results over 2 days
In 5 matches over two days, it has been 5/5 so far. I didn't restrict myself to just football and included things like amateur table tennis and basketball as well. You need a win ratio of over 90% to make this work and it may not be possible to sustain the streak.
Out of the 5 matches, 3 were easy wins for the favorite. The other 2 saw the favorite come from behind to win and the in-game odds for the favorite to win were greater than 2 at the peak.
My initial thoughts are that this type of betting isn't sustainable. To maintain such a high win-rate, even with good filtering, leaves you at the mercy of plain bad luck.
Can this work?
What are your thoughts on low odds? Can this work? One system i'm looking at is parlaying the initial bet size till it doubles. With average odds of 1.15, it would take around 5 bets to double the initial bet. After which you have a 'free bet'.
I'll probably chuck this in the 'bad idea' bin but i'm interested to see how far a streak can go. Tonight's match selected is from Swiss basketball - Fribourg Olympic to win @ 1.12.