Overall Analysis & Study of my own case

July was an awesome month

We were all extremely excited about Steem possibilities and how good content would be rewarded on Steemit, how it could revolutionize Online advertising and good content creators, as well as curation rewarding and strong commitment.

Following the enthusiasm generated by several excellent information provided by @dantheman, @ned and Steem team, All developers and entrepreneur started to work hard on projects.

It started this new synergistic approach that motivated people to build things together and for the community

• The first info was announced : Steemit is open source ! And Piston/Piston.web (from @xeroc), as well as couple of API (SteemJS / SteemAPI from @svk @fabien) were really exciting, 
• The second info explained how it was possible to build custom applications on top of Steem, also using the power of Subchains. Key benefits to subchains on Steem, and Graphene technology that inevitably results in creativity, entrepreneurship, project maker moves :

1. Advanced Account Structures
2. Pre-validated Account Authorities on Custom Operations
3. No Transaction Fees
4. Fast Block Times
5. TaPoS (Transactions as Proof of Stake)

That was the most exciting new project's start-up I've ever seen, as a serial entrepreneur, it means something ! All these worldwide brains associated for the same cause, sharing almost the same philosophy combining anarchism, free market vision, and entrepreneurship...

People started also to realize that the Steemit Marketing posts and good introduceyouself could really Pay ! 

We had this full self-marketing phase when whales tried to the incentive on people getting involved in the community, by introducing themselves and feeling in the family enough to be paid to advertise Steem by doing Marketing or build tools and services that could improve the community and bring in new members.

This strategy aimed at enhancing competition in content rewards and improving the overall quality of content and increasing considerably Steem's popularity with all the marketing done by steemers.

This is the HYPE Phase.

HYPE attracts people, money, development, but it takes times to create product and value.

Remember that STEEM is in BETA test.

August stagnation and decrease of activity

A new opinion would claim that Posts/replies per day are decreasing for several reasons mostly negative ideas. 

• A lot of debate on Steemit being a Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, see bitcointalk topic
• The problem with whales weight and other Steem limits underlined and recents changes on Voting, Debate on @dantheman Negative voting topic that had a lot of downvotes
• The Steem value, (0 to 4$ then 2$ in July, 2$ to 1$ even below 1 in august)
• and Synereo or other competitor arrivals

In my opinion, these assumptions are legitimate and quite rational for a new disruptive project on crypto-world. Steem birth is nothing common. We are like one the biggest "Foundation" working on a disruptive idea and project that could change the world, and things are going very fast on this Beta. So people needs to slow down and breathe. Gets elements to give deep analysis before going further.

The problem with this claim is that it tends to underline the negative side of things based on wrong elements and ignore what is really happening here.

Moreover, Steem is in a first phase Hype, and the challenge is to improve our model, then to scale horizontally to other niche markets. It requires time to enable clearer priorities to be established. Also to recalibrate correctly through the beta , to build teams, and choose the right path before starting the next move.

Begin planning promptly to capitalize on the goodwill and enthusiasm generated at the start up of Steem - and to demonstrate to the community that we know where we are going to. This is the next step.

 So Why Steemit post/replies per day is decreasing ? 

My overall analysis broadly reflects the study of my own case. I will try to explain why I think the activity is decreasing based on my own approach to the first phase.

People are learning from their mistakes

The first month helped Steem members realize what they could do and what they couldn't. Which expected quality standard deserves which rewards, how to prepare their content in significantly more qualitative terms.

Blockchain immutability and its way to fight censorship and also improve content quality begin to take effect. People did not realize how strong the blockchain transparency and immutability could impact the way they use this kind of Website.

As you can't edit, nor delete your content once it's posted, it pushes people to be more careful, as they understand step by step the concept of Reputation building, and Steem aim concept : more quality, more rewards. All in transparency. With the blockchain's transparency, those who prefer profit without work will have no place to run and no place to hide...

@ekitcho own case 

Like everyone, I tried several types of posts and topics to test the UI and getting a good user experience. As well as gets every side of the Steem blockchain to be able to catch the right idea and build an outstanding project. I started to work on SteemDebitCard.com and apparently did not set up the things well enough and was quite naive on how it could work. A DebitCard project involves tons of parameters that require high-security grade project and TRUST as you manage funds. I did post it even before any Presentation or proof of identity. I actually learned that reputation and networking are the keys. If you want to do something for, and with the community, you have to actually work seriously on it and getting involved to gain trust and good reputation. Not only writing a concept the win money and asking upvotes.

I also figure out that I wanted to prepare better content to post than useless stuff that would basically just Spam the blockchain without adding any value to it

For this reason, I think most people try to analyze more than posting. And keep working on their project as well as building links with other steemers.

People are networking, building team and reputation, finding their niche

Steem model is not built to work alone, posting without any followers hoping some whales to catch your content within the first 24 hours. 

It requires good networking, building links with other steem members and create/join existing Teams and project, deep understanding of the model and which direction we are taking, and reputation building.

@ekitcho own case

I've been working on several projects. My main project is a new disruptive app based on Steem, solving social media matters like Synereo tried to do. We are building a strong team with @fabien and have a prototype working on the Steem blockchain. We have the support of @ned also @bitspace team with @clains and couple witnesses and devs. We are going big. Also on the market part as well as internalization.

I've been working also to open a new Steem Foundation to help people start their project and every niche. We are building links with @fabien @clains @cass and other people to try to make something really useful for our community. 

I've been building links with CHINA and JAPAN community and plan to go to Japan by the end of this month to make a presentation of our different projects based on Steem and open to the Asian market. I have contacted all the Chinese members and start working on some ideas with Japanese too. Some VCs and startup founders I know in Japan are waiting for me. We plan to host Conference and Hackathons there !

 I have pause the SteemDebitCard project to gather more information and bring more people in this to build this in a more collaborative way, and full transparency approach. I've discussed it with the @steemdrive team and @thecryptodrive or @instructor2121 and they try to help on this for a while to make this project happen and build a reputation. I had confirmation of a Chinese friend who will invest in this project in October and is building a Hong kong corporate company to manage this. Still figuring out how to handle all these germinated seeds and may pass it to the Foundation to get more trust.

Everyone is now busy building strong links and team and try to figure out what is the next step. So we have less time for Posting. That also means big projects are coming.

People are analyzing more deeply after the hype, and waiting for more a new exciting event

Things are moving fast. We see Steemit UI changes. Almost everyday You will have a new commit. We all realize that we are adapting fast to the problems and the Synereo vs Steemit debate, did actually Steemulate the activity. We now have Promoted content and Boost payment.

But that also means that we are not really stable. As well as Steem currency which tends to be quite unstable during August (4$ to less than 1$ a STEEM)

As Synereo is launching this month, (9th September they have their Conference Start in Vancouver), @stellabelle did come with a now-famous debate that tried to disrupts the global trust around Steem. In my opinion, Synereo is a good competitor. They solve some problems we still have to figure out on Steem. In Synereo, people are Paid to read. That quite interesting because if you read a content and put time on it, even if you don't vote for curation, you somehow generate value like you do on Facebook or any website and should be rewarded for it.

People are observing what will happen with Synereo and also waiting for Steemit to stabilize our model and decide more clearly about Negative votes, Vote power, Promoted posts, and fix a good U.I/U.X according to the features.

@ekitcho own case 

With all my project I don't have enough time to read all commits comments or updates on Steemit. It's also hard to catch all debate about those important topics and try to build new teams, apps, at the same time.

I just realized also about the voting power which I agree with @jesta, is quite difficult to understand how it's really working. even for us.

 I do also wait to see what Synereo can bring and how we should react to their start up. As I should go to Japan after the 20th September, I feel like these 3 weeks will be crazy and hectic !

***

At first glance the chart looks bad, users continue to sign up but activity has fallen or remained flat. The post/replies per day decreased for some normal reason, and it's not negative. I see that as a very positive transition to something bigger. Better content, less crap, new Steem app, Subchains projects, and Free market using ESCROW transfer that is just released as a new feature, as well as Saving accounts for more security.

September and October will be decisive and I'm very confident on what's happening inside the community as I take the time to discuss almost every project with active members.

If I did some English mistake, you'll have to excuse my french :)

Thanks for your support !