Another week, another low. Steem is now at the $1.5 mark and the market still looks bearish with no respite for the bulls. Volumes are still pretty strong but will this lead to unattractive payouts in the next 6 months?
Users have seen they're account value drop by over 30% now in the last couple of weeks. Whilst the number of active users on Steem is in decline.
Here is the data:
2016-07-26 5185
2016-07-27 5282
2016-07-28 6464
2016-07-29 5617
2016-07-30 4398
2016-07-31 4095
2016-08-01 4349
2016-08-02 4439
2016-08-03 4313
2016-08-04 4254
The lower number of active users does make a case for better rewards in the short term, in the long term Steem relies on new users pumping money in to the platform to continue giving out the high rewards that attract more users to the site. Remember, Steem's money supply is generated this way.
Another problem with Steem is that a lot of users are powering down they're accounts. The 90% rewards return on powered down accounts there isn't much disincentive for users to not power down. This causes an outflow of money from the Steem ecosystem at the rate of almost 1% per week per powered down user. The ease at which Steem rewards can be withdrawn from the system to Bitcoin which can be linked to a Debit Card for daily use is a big factor. Many authors use this to pay for they're daily lives now and get a paycheck at the end of each week for their efforts by powering down. A look at the books of accounts for Steem is important and i hope these are shared by the founders, it is ultimately a living example of a blockchain application where transparency is so vital.
Since Steem's business model is similar to that of investment in shares of a company on the stock exchange the sharing of financial information to its investors should be mandatory. Metrics such as cost of user acquisition, user growth, engagement times, and financial balance sheets should be public information.
Conclusion:
Whilst traders may bet on Steem as prices continue to drop there are some strong contradictions between rewards and money supply within the network. The active user base dropping is a major fundamental concern and i think in the next few months Steem will face a liquidity crisis that will need to be addressed in order to keep payouts high enough to encourage existing users to return whilst increasing investments in marketing to attract new users. Like with all other social media sites the cost of acquiring new users to use the platform is important to know, with Steem prices on the fall, rewards may not alone be enough.
This of course isn't a short term problem but with active users having they're money locked in for 2 years this is a concern!
RE: $STEEM/BTC Daily Poloniex+Bittrex Technical Analysis Update #13 "Testing new grounds" Aug 12, 2016