I bet many of you are asking if I am for real with this question...I am.
And no, I haven't lost my mind.
STEEM is one of the hottest things going right now in the blockchain world because of utility. Unlike many other blockchains, STEEM has a purpose. We are engaged in an activity that billions are doing for free. STEEM is one of the initial tokens that is being distributed in a wide spread manner compensating people for what they did on traditional sites. It is one of the first tokens to enter what I called Cryptocurrency 2.0.
For the last few months I wrote how STEEM will be $100 by the end of 2018. I started posting these articles when STEEM was $.85. The attitude at that time was one of negativity and gloom. People thought the end was near. To me, I was astonished. I started writing up posts to counter some of the garbage people were saying.
So here we are two months later with STEEM basically moving up 10 fold before pulling back some. Therefore, as I sit here typing these words, I know $100 will take place. There is no doubt in my mind. Just like some laughed when I made these statements at $.85, they are laughing now. Fortunately, their accounts grow as my projectioins are getting closer in spite of their viewpoints.
Before going any further, I need to state that it is best if you throw all ideas of valuation and understanding of numbers out the window. This is not the stock market. In that world, a 5% pullback in a stock is a big deal. Here, it that happens when you go get a cup of coffee. When the stock market drops 20%-30%, it is a collapse. With crypto, it is just a recoiling before moving up 60%. Volatility and big moves, in either direction, are the norm.
People like to compare the value of bitcoin to different companies like that means something, It is apples and oranges. Other than the irony of bitcoin passing Dimon's JPM, the comparison means nothing. Putting those two side-by-side is like comparing a hammer to a nuclear bomb. It is absurd.
Cryptocurrency, in general, is going to create abundance for the world. People fail to realize what is taking place. The Internet has come the world of finance and it is taking over money. What is often overlooked is whatever the Internet gets a hold of, it makes abundant.
Let us get in our Delorean and pole-vault back to the 1990s. When the Internet started, information was hard to come by. It was slow while carrying an expensive price tag. Encyclopedias cost thousands of dollars. Newspapers and magazine flourished. Then along came the Internet and it crushed the pricing systems those companies used. Wikipedia was free. Information online is so plentiful one cannot even make a dent in all there is to read.
In short, information became abundant.
The same was true for communication. Pre-Internet was the era of long distance phone calls, mailing letters, and faxing. These were all either slow or expensive forms of communication. Of course, like their brethren in the newspaper and magazine industries, the world of communication was upended. Suddenly, communication was free and plentiful. Email enabled one to send out the same message to thousands of people simultaneously. A decade later, social media expanded this idea to the point where a seemingly infinite amount of people could read your posted messages.
Again, the number of ways to communicate and spread a message became abundant.
So why do people think it will be any different now that the Internet is in the money arena. Remember, the Internet is the world's biggest copy machine and it is copying money.
Of course none of this makes STEEM a $1,000 token. Yet that is something that I believe is highly possible.
Blockchain, in my view, will have a valuation at some point in the 2020s close to a quadrillion dollars. This is going to take over the Internet and pump it up like it is on steroids. The blockchain is 100 times more powerful and disruptive. World wide open source is going to send innovation skyrocketing to a level that most of us cannot even imagine. Entire industries are going to operate as DAOs engaging in commerce 24/7 without human interaction. The wealth creation is going to be outstanding (Satoshi might be the first crypto billionaire but he isn't going to be the last..in fact, he won't be the richest).
Therefore, get past the idea that a multi-trillion dollar blockchain is impossible. It is not. In fact, we will see many of them in the next couple years. At some point, STEEM could be at that level.
To really understand how we arrive at a number so big, we have to focus upon why people sign up here. What is the main reason people start their journey on Steemit? The obvious answer is to make money. People sign up simply because they are not making money blogging or engaging in social behavior anywhere else. This makes total sense and is something I think most of us can agree upon.
Concentrating upon the proper numbers is crucial. STEEM right now has roughly 260M tokens created with about 70% of them tied up in SP. These are nice numbers yet really are not crucial to this discussion. What will be important over the next couple years is one number: 25 million.
What is 25 millions?
That is roughly the number of new tokens that are created in each of the next couple years for the reward pool. Actually, if we wanted to be picky, it is a bit smaller number since a percentage of that money goes to witnesses and SP holders to offset inflation. Be that as it may, we will use the 25M to exemplify the point.
In dollars, the annual reward pool (using $7 a token) is $175M. With 40K active daily users, this means that the average is $4,375 annually. Not a bad sum for those who are doing this part time to make a little extra money. Naturally, using averages means some will be way above with others way below.
Nevertheless, the point is clear; the reward pool is basically set in terms of the STEEM distributed. The two variables that can change are the number of users and the dollar value.
Let us look at what happens when the users increase to 400K. If the token price is the same, we see the average dropping to $437 per person. Tenfold the user base again, we get that number dropping to $43 with 4M people on STEEM. Just to give contrast, Reddit reportedly has 250M daily users.
In the next 12-18 months, there will be 4B people online. When you have an Internet pool that big, is 4M users a large amount? I do not think so. The question is are those people going to join Steem for the prospect of earning a total of $43 a year? Again, I do not think so.
If the active daily user base increases 100 fold, then the price must increase by the same multiple to maintain the same $4,375 per user average we have now. From where we stand at this moment, that is a $700+ token.
Once the token is at $700, it is not a major leap when you add in SMTs requiring bandwidth or commerce being done on the blockchain in STEEM.
In 2011, people could not see $15,000 bitcoin. Nor did anyone see close to $1,000 ETH in 2015. $380 LTC was a pipe dream a year ago. Yet all of this happened.
So why is $1,000 STEEM so unbelievable to people? My answer is because they are looking at things like this is just another financial instrument when it is not.
The Internet is a giant copy machine and these numbers show it.
We are sitting on something 100 times more powerful and disruptive than the Internet. Put 10 million users on STEEM, 40% of them active, and you will have a $1,000 token.
The reward pool simply requires it.
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