The movement in the price of STEEM recently is rather impressive. However, I do not believe that rate is anything compared to what we are going to see in the users who sign up in the next 6 months. The steem blockchain is almost to the point where it is going to explode onto the scene.
At present, it is the crytpocurrency with the most utility. Not in terms of where it can be used but, rather, in how it is acquired. This blockchain was designed as a place where people could monetize their content. At the same time, the community would be rewarded for determining what was quality content. This is exactly what is happening. I feel the run up in STEEM's price only reflects this reality.
There is no doubt 2017 was a difficult year in many ways for STEEM. Since I got here, other than some negativity from the doom and gloom people, it has been fairly smooth sailing. That was not the case earlier in the year. Nevertheless, STEEM weathered all the difficulties to be a rising currency on a very active blockchain.
Of course, there is still a lot of work to be done. There are a number of issues, some of which affect the rate of growth we are experiencing.
Everyone I saw who commented upon this agrees that the present sign up process is a major stumbling block. It affects both the amount of sign ups and the retention rates. Most people are not going to come back after having to wait 3 days for confirmation. We live in the Internet Age where a website taking more than a few seconds causes the user to click elsewhere. Three days is a lifetime. Whatever excitement the individual had when filling out the form is lost after 72 hours.
This situation is going to be corrected in the next Hard Fork (HF20). Hopefully, we will see that some time this month although no set time frame was given. An automated sign up process will allow people to get involved immediately. This should help the retention rate since, as I said, people lose excitement. When one signs up and gets directly involved, the chances of that person becoming an active user is increased.
That said, there still needs to be a draw to attract people to go through the sign up process. There are a number of people marketing on YouTube and Facebook. I am sure this is netting results. Looking at the Alexa information, Steemit is doing a wonderful job moving up the rankings. It also appears to finding some high placements in the search engines (well in Google, which is the one that really matters).
The rankings on Alexa, marketing on other social media sites, and search engine traffic is a great thing to have. However, it is a waste if that does not translate into people signing up. Having an abysmal conversation rate means that a lot of time and effort was for nothing. The ultimate goal is to get active users, not to place high on some ranking list.
Which brings me to the real reason we are going to see a huge influx: The Price of STEEM.
I am sure, unless you are under a rock, you noticed what happened to the dollar values of your posts this week. Since the price of STEEM quadrupled before pulling back, our votes are worth a lot more. This translates into much higher values for each post. Looking at the trending page, there are quite a number of posts worth well over $1,000.
Naturally, these posts are worth no more than they were a week ago with regards to payout. We receive STEEM on this blockchain, not dollars. The biggest impact came from the run up in the SBDs which enabled people to get a lot more STEEM. Nevertheless, the impact we are seeing is real.
And this will translate into a higher conversion rate of people hitting this site. How do I know this?
Call it the "lottery effect".
Have you ever noticed what happens when the lottery gets into hundreds of millions of dollars? People go crazy and start buying tickets. Those who normally do not play the lottery toss a few bucks at it. They think what the heck. Of course, the regular lottery players increase their purchasing in hopes of having their lives forever changed. What is ironic is that buying a few more tickets does not statistically increase their chances much. Yet people do it.
It is the same thing here. When an individual hits this site, seeing the higher amounts will set off the" lottery effect". Someone's chances of earning money on the STEEM blockchain did not increase one bit by the higher STEEM. The reward system does not change and it is still heavily dependent upon SP/VP. Nevertheless, seeing articles that are over $1,000 is enticing to people. I believe as the price of STEEM continues to move upward, the "lottery effect" will only become stronger.
Another advantage to the higher STEEM is the impact it does have on the minnows. From a psychological standpoint, it helps to get a little bit of reward off one's posts. We all know how tough it is when one is first starting out. That said, many left because they only made 20-25 cents off a post. Suddenly, that same post is worth 60-75 cents. Not an life changing amount yet it is moving towards the dollar mark. This is extremely helpful from a motivational standpoint.
Now imagine the trending posts topping $2,000 with our new person's posts being worth $1.20-$1.50. What impact will that have? I bring up this point because I do not believe for a second that STEEM is going to remain a $6 token for very long. We will see another run like we did this week. It might not be for a month or two, but we will see the price fly past $10. So what happens to these numbers when the price of STEEM is hanging out in the $12-$15 range?
I do not know if it was intentional or not, but pricing the payouts in dollars was a genius move. This is going to be our biggest conversion tool. Steemit is moving up in the Alexa rankings (as is D.Tube) which means there is going to be a ton of organic traffic arriving here. As I wrote in a post a couple weeks ago, the increase in the number of comments is lengthening posts which helps their Google rankings. At the same time, we are seeing 40K people a day posting articles and commenting on stuff. That is making the size of this "digital ball" into a glacier. It is getting bigger and bigger. This will only bring in more organic traffic which gets drawn in by the large payouts (in dollars) for many posts.
Rinse and Repeat.
It becomes a vicious cycle upward. Then it is only a matter of time before things blast into another stratosphere.
Do not be surprised if you see a month with 1M new users signed up towards the end of the year. The growth rate can accelerate that quickly.
And all of us on here will be very happy Steemians.
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