I started buying bitcoin at about $900 and since then it has rocketed to fluctuate around $2500.
I then thought about how new markets increase as a result of interest and general take up. The standard doubling formula sprung to mind and I then tried to apply it to Bitcoin and compared it to other technologies.
Technologies like, smart phones, cars, internet and the like tended to double in capacity every 9 months, with a corresponding price hike, until it hit the point on the Metcalfs Law cross over point where critical mass had been reached.
When I compare it to Bitcoin, the following conclusions are evident:
July 2010 Bitcoin Price was about $0.05
December 2014 Bitcoin Price was about $375.00
This gave a time to double in price on average as every 4.15 months. A rate more than twice that of the technologies mentioned above
March 2017 Bitcoin Price was about $1,020.00
This gave a time to double in price on average as every 5.7 months. A rate slightly less than twice that of the technologies mentioned above
July 2017 Bitcoin Price is about $2,500.00
This gave a time to double in price on average as every 5.5 months. A rate slightly less than twice that of the technologies mentioned above
At this rate the price should be around $5,000 by the end of 2017 and about $40,000 by the end of 2018.
It seems to me that the trend should hold for the forseeable future, if for no other reason because the Technology is sound, not many of the worlds population even know anything about Bitcoin and that the SEC is starting to worry about Bitcoin.
This is the reason why Bitcoin is a buy and hold technology. Bouncing through the ups and downs will then be just like enjoying a rollercoaster ride.
This is not investment advice, it is merely me thinking aloud.
