At the moment, I'm having a pretty horrific time doing the predictions for the crypto season... which has led me to drop to a 58% accuracy rate for lifetime ranking... which means I'm probably no longer receiving the invites for the "PRO" challenges for crypto... you need a 60% plus ranking for that... however, the last two months have dropped me from 61% to 58%... so, I'll be working at trying to get that hit rate back up to receive the challenges again... after all, there is a smaller pool of analysts and more CND up for grabs!

However, I have 66% lifetime rating in the traditional sector... which means I definitely get the invite for these two "PRO" seasons. Currently, in the Ranking Pro season... I sitting pretty in the top 10! Rankings are some of my least favourite questions in Cindicator... the involve the prediction of 3-8 assets and the rankings in proportional growth one week from the question. Now, for crypto... you may as welll take a dartboard approach for the question... things go up and down in wild swings with very little rhyme or reason.... However, in the traditional sector.... I've found that a quite and simple look at the charts with the Bollinger bands overlaid has given me decent enough results... with a rough accuracy rate of about 70% (this is the rate that I get positive points and not correectly ranking every last asset!).

So, I'm going decently with this... and hope to get a nice payout at the end of the season!

Now, the EPS (Earnings Per Share) PRO Season is also a pretty tricky one for financial markets. It is based upon the earnings per share compared to the consensus estimate... so a binary predicition, based upon whether the real results exceeds or underperforms in comparison to the market estimate before the earnings call. Also, this season, there are two additional questions (well, three... as there is a cross company question...) which involve the immediate daily performance of the asset in the market in the day immediately after the earnings call... and also, whether or not the company is going to provide a positive or negative future guidance for the market.

At the moment, I'm mostly going with my gut on these questions... I haven't really found a reliable way to base my predictions... the best I can manage is the after hours trading of the stock... I figure if there is a pretty strong swing either way it will hint at the potential contents of the earnings call. There is some risk in that though... as you will need to keep in mind the effect of the general market movement and the movement of that particular sector. However, apart from that... it is mostly just my own sentiment about the market, and nothing better than that. This season, I'm doing better than pure chance... only just... but picking up a positive result at the moment in points... which will give me a part share of the payout.

The last question is the daily comparison of the 3 or 4 companies that have their upcoming earnings calls... so a ranking question based on the proportional performance on the day immediately after the earnings calls.

The best I can say for this EPS season is that I'm hoping to finish up with a positive result... and just learn about how to make better predictions on EPS questions.

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