Unit bias is at it again. Crypto news is so boring. Every other article is some BS speculation post about price action. You know what I keep hearing over and over and over and over again?
Bitcoin has broken support at 10k again.
Someone please show me where, in the decade long history of Bitcoin, that we've ever had support at 10k. Yeah, that's never been a thing. Bitcoin has never ever had support at 10k, yet everyone and their mother is shouting it from the rooftops every damn time it dips under 10k.
Bitcoin has dipped under 10k nine times in the last three months. Every time it has dipped significantly under 10k, it bottomed out at a higher level than the time before, yet people keep spouting nonsense about it breaking this mythical support. Why?
Unit Bias
Unit bias is everywhere and affects everyone.
Unit bias was even making me fat:
Oh well there's just a little bit of food left on this plate.
I have to finish it to complete the meal.
Cut it out.
Chances are unit bias is messing with your head and causing you to make bad decisions in one way or another. Get to know yourself and be on the lookout for when your brain plays tricks on you like this. Our brain likes to find patterns in the randomness of life when there is often no pattern to be found. Check yourself.
But 10000 is such a nice round number!
I know right?
It's even the very first 5 digit base 10 integer.
How could we not decide that Bitcoin has a support line there?
It's so close to 10k, so it is 10k.
It not, get over it.
I don't have high hopes for Bakkt like many others do. I think the market is being tested for this. If Bitcoin breaks under $9600 I think we are going to the $7500-$8000 level in October. It's kind of annoying because I was talking about this level before everyone else, and I have proof on the blockchain, but now it just looks like I'm copying the opinions of the "pros".
But it really does feel like the market is just itching to dump the second Bakkt gets here. Why is the market slowly descending as we get closer and closer to this 'bullish' event where trillions of dollars are suddenly going to be unlocked to the market?
Have we stopped to consider that maybe whales are looking to dump into that liquidity and take more gains on an asset that's already gone x3 this year? Seriously, x3... this shit is unheard of in the traditional markets, and it's totally unregulated Wild West insanity.
Doesn't matter.
Even if Bitcoin crashes to $7500 (I think the absolute minimum it can possibly go is $6k under extremely dire conditions) it simply isn't worth gambling on. Who cares if you have to chance to save 20% when there are possibly 300%-600% gains on the table coming up in as little as three months? For me, the math here is easy. Don't take the risk, stay in the market.
Uber bullish on winter.
Winter has always been our time. If Bakkt really is going to bring a lot of money into the space, why would we think that would happen on day one of it opening? It really shows how impatient and greedy we all are to think such a thing.
Personally, I think it's more likely this is all ramping up to an epic winter bull run. Not only can Bakkt futures take actual liquidity off the market over time, but traders might also start foolishly try to start pricing in the Bitcoin halving event 5 months in advance.
Be on the lookout for halvening hype this winter. If we see a lot it means that the winter pump and dumb will potentially be massive. Everyone will be like, "See! Bakkt is bringing in all this nonstop money! To the moon." And that's when the dump comes and no one believes it's coming even though it happens every damn year, lol.
Small potatoes.
When we look at what's going on in the world and why Bitcoin was created in the first place, all these things I've been talking about kind of pale in comparison to the next financial collapse and the price action history of Bitcoin 6-12 months AFTER the halving event. If you're going to go on autopilot, make sure to show up for the end of 2020. I think that's where the real fireworks will be. It's hard to be patient but I'm trying.