The MLB Draft is an imperfect science.
Scouts will spend countless hours studying statistics, film and medical records in the hopes of finding — and drafting — baseball’s the next superstar.
But, for every Derek Jeter that makes it to the top of the sport, there are dozens of Matt Bush types that wash out during their time in the minor leagues after being drafted. That is to say, even the most “can’t miss” prospects often do, and accurately predicting which amateur players will turn into big league all-stars is incredibly difficult.
While there are no sure-things when it comes to MLB Draft, there are, however, safe bets every year, and 2017 is no different.
Here are the five players from this year’s draft who will likely make it to majors the quickest.
Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
The right-handed pitcher out of Vanderbilt is widely considered to be the most “pro-ready” prospect in the entire draft and could wind up being the first player from the 2017 class to break into the big leagues.
Scouts love Wright for three reasons: The first being he showcases fantastic stuff on the mound. His fastball sits between 94-97 mph, and he complements that power with a hard curveball that has shown good downward movement and a changeup that fades away from lefties.
The second reason is that he has one of the best bodies of work of any draft prospect this year. Wright has dominated SEC competition for three years and was a standout for Team USA last summer, going 2-0 in two starts with a 2.20 ERA.
The third reason is because he hails from a program that has an outstanding track record of producing Major League-caliber pitchers, including current big leaguers David Price, Mike Minor and Sonny Gray. Wright is sure to join the list of Vandy pitchers taken in the top-10 of the draft this year, as his name has been linked with the Minnesota Twins who hold the first overall selection. Expect Wright to move quickly through the minor leagues and make his debut at some point in 2018.
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, University of North Carolina
Though much smaller than the 6-4 Kyle Wright, the University of North Carolina righthander has a big arm that could see him taken early in the first round on June 12.
With a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a hard, upper-80s slider, scouts are split on whether Bukauskas will remain a starter at the next level or make a move toward the bullpen, likely in a closer role.
Whether he is taking the ball at the beginning of games or at the end, he has a very good chance to climb to the majors very quickly. Much like Wright, Bukauskas competed in a very tough conference for the past three years, giving scouts a good idea of where he will stack up against professional hitters.
If he remains a starter, look for the Ashburn, Va., native to spend a couple seasons in the minors and make his major league debut in either late 2019 or 2020. However, if the team that selects him makes him a closer immediately, his path to the top could be much shorter, with him getting the call up next summer.
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State University
The lone position player on this list, Burger is widely thought to be one of the top college hitters available in the 2017 draft. He doesn’t come from a brand-name school, but his size, statistics and projectability lead most scouts to believe that the Missouri State third baseman will be selected in the mid-to-late first round by a team looking for power at the plate. They should get that from Burger, who has hit a combined 43 home runs in the past two seasons.
Standing 6-2 and 220 pounds, the Chesterfield, Mo., native is a three-time All-America selection and took home the Missouri Valley Conference’s triple-crown this season.
Unlike a lot of big-hitting college third basemen, whose lack of range usually forces them into a corner outfield position at the next level, scouts think that Burger has enough athleticism to remain in the infield as a professional. Expect him to move through the minors at a steady pace, as few prospects possess his ability to hit the long ball, and make his debut as a September call-up in 2019.
Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS, Sherman Oaks, Calif.
One of the most physically gifted players in the draft, Greene has the chance to become the first ever high school right-handed pitcher to be chosen first overall — and for good reason. The 17-year-old can easily run his fastball into the triple digits and remain in the upper-90s deep into his starts.
He has also shown good off-speed pitches for a high schooler, giving scouts hope that he can refine them even more to bolster his arsenal with some work in the minors.
Most analysts do not see Greene sliding past pick No. 5 in the draft, so it is almost a certainty that he will go to a team that is in desperate need of help. Like Bukauskas, Greene’s velocity gives whichever team that drafts him options.
He will most definitely begin his professional career as a starter, but should he struggle in that role in the minors, a fastball that touches 102 mph could help facilitate a move to closer.
With a prospect as naturally talented as Greene, the urge may be there to move him through the system quickly. However, it would be beneficial to let the Notre Dame High School senior take his time in the minors to ensure that he is ready when the call comes. Even with this cautious approach, expect to see Greene in an MLB stadium by 2020.
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS, Whiteville, N.C.
Few prospects have helped their draft stock this spring as much as Gore. As junior at Whiteville (N.C.) High School, the left-handed pitcher jumped onto scouts’ radars with a fastball that sat in the low-90s.
Since that time, Gore has added some zip to his heater, which can now touch 96 mph and racked up otherworldly statistics en route to winning the Gatorade National Player of the Year award this spring.
That jump in velocity and national notoriety has catapulted Gore’s name onto the list of players that could be taken with the first few picks in the draft. Scouts flocked to see the 18-year-old pitch this spring and came away impressed.
Not only does he currently showcase top of the line stuff, but his 6-2, 180-pound frame could easily support more weight that could, in theory, continue to increase his velocity. Often, scouts and analysts will speak of a player’s projectability and upside, referring to where that player could be down the road, and Gore is a classic example of this; He has really good stuff right now, but could have great stuff after a few years in the minors. And that has teams drooling.
Gore may take a little longer than others on this list to make it to the big leagues, but he’ll be worth the wait. Expect to see the youngster make his debut in late 2020 or early 2021.