I don't like Elon Musk.
I don't like him for one simple principled reason: he claims to be an entrepreneur, but he has, and continues, to suckle at the tit of the government.
TESLA and SPACEX are at best government welfare operations - and at worst? - at worst they are fraud. But "fraud" comes in different flavors - there's the fraud that's meant to be concealed, and the fraud that's meant to be revealed. Like the last few "tops" in the markets, other broken business cycles, other near calamities (one can't forget, 20 years ago, LTMC ... can they? Rickards still makes bank on being connected to those "mathematical geniuses"), there has been that select "person" or "institution" meant to take the blame and obscure the truth.
I do not know if the TESLA cars are good or bad - I do not own one. I do know they are expensive ...
The CHEAPEST NEW TESLA you can buy today will still cost you, depending on where you live, nearly $70,000.00 (probably more) ... I guess you could buy one used, in about 18 months, for about $20K ... but you have to wait $18 months (yes, that's how optimistic I am).
I've seen TESLA drivers, and they look unhappy. It's almost as if the core demographic for the TESLA are people who should be on suicide watch ...
No - sorry ... I make in the top 10% of wage earners, in America. I can't really justify buying any car that will cost me more than $8000.00 (used). But really - assuming Elon magically reaches his production goals of 5,000 model 3's a week ... who ... precisely WHO can afford to buy them, in America, right now?
My guess (I don't know for certain), his little Model 3 project is costing him $10 billion in fixed costs, which doesn't include variable production cost ... I really don't know. That number feels, if anything, too low.
Recouping fixed production costs and variable costs to reach break-even? -> assume 85% of the price of a Model 3 is eaten up in production costs (I think this is a low estimate), then each Model 3 earns TESLA approximately $5K. Take the $10 billion in fixed costs - not including complex arbitrage arrangements, weird loans, etc: you end up NEEDING to sell 2 million vehicles! (and again, my estimates are probably rosier than a more thorough analysis)
Tesla claims to have 455K valid pre-orders.
Keep in mind: the assumptions listed above are based in part on data the public can find on their own (WWW), and also in part on my own SWAG (and yes, there's a "wild ass guess" in there, somewhere). I am forming a conjecture, a simple one:
a) That there is no mathematical likelihood, without government help, that TESLA survives. But Elon Musk is expert at cronyism, so don't count him out yet. What Elon lacks in true entrepreneurship, he makes up for as a social-engineer. I think Elon has better than even odds, should a crisis hit, of surviving by stealing more tax payer money. But, I really think Elon's position is shakier than even his own ego will allow - and there is NO WAY in hell he sells enough vehicles before the next recession arrives ... and when I say "recession", I mean the next leg down of this global depression we've been in since 2007 ... sorry for bursting your bubble, there never really was an "economic recovery" under Obama. The "recovery" was sold as a "recovery" using fraudulent math. Remember the summer of 2010? Biden's "Recovery Summer" propaganda initiative? Yeah ... that was awesome.
b) ... and this will seem to contradict [a], but Elon may also be the "chosen sacrifice" for the deep-state, this time around. And when I say "this time around", I mean the pending, postponed, economic collapse. It's going to be YUUUGE, mostly because we ratcheted up the economy, with debt, to a massive scale. I don't see how this "heroin addict", called America, survives - barring some nation state version of Krokodil to switch to ... however ... I think we've been in the "Krokodil Phase" of economic policy since 2008.
So here we are ...
Yes, there is a chance TESLA and Musk survive another 5 years - but only if they get more tax payer dollars.
There is ZERO CHANCE, without government help, that TESLA survives.
TESLA already takes advantage, and has taken advantage, of various government programs, kick-backs, etc ...
And it does seem as if the cheap money "addict", called America, isn't doing so well being taken off the drugs so fast (Powell says at least one more rate hike).
"Economic KROKODIL" ... that's how historians will remember FED policy, and quantitative easing, and all the chicanery since 2008. 10 years of chicanery ...
And like decaying flesh off the victim of a Krokodil addict ... heck ... open your eyes ... you probably live near or IN one of those "krokodil sores" ...
(I mean cities)
