Bitcoin is on its way to $17,000 after bouncing off the $14,000 level of support. This beat my initial expectation that BTC would temporarily fall into the $12,000 to $13,000 range. I believe that we will test $17,000 again, and this time break through that level of resistance. If BTC breaks to the upside at that level, I predict the price will rise back to $20,000, and completing Step 3 in an Elliot Wave formation. In Step 4, we will see BTC correct to the $17,000, where old resistance becomes new support. Barring any black swan events, Step 5 will have BTC ride up beyond $20,000.
If this prediction is true, most altcoins will suffer a temporary drop in price (in both satoshi and dollar terms), followed by price stagnation in dollar terms. My expectation for a BTC bull market is also the reason why I thought ADA would enter a bear market in Q1 (analysis linked here).
Finally, I would like to quell some skepticism on a BTC bull market beyond TA. First, one major factor that is overlooked is that new money is having difficulty entering the market. In the past week, we've seen Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Kraken, and Gatehub either temporarily closing new registrations, having money transferring difficulties, or temporarily closing the exchange. Second, many note that institutional investors are shorting Bitcoin futures by a large margin. The reason why I believe this is not a big concern is because these investors never touch any Bitcoins during the betting process. Unless these institutions are dumping their Bitcoin directly onto the major cryptocurrency exchanges, shorting Bitcoin futures has no direct effect on its price.
This analysis was done on TradingView, so feel free to follow me there! This analysis is not a buy, sell, or hodl recommendation, and should not be taken as financial advice. I have long positions on BTC, USD (:P), and ADA. As always, thanks for reading and happy trading!
Sources And Links
- https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ADABTC/aQ3q9ZA2-Bear-Market-For-ADA-In-Q1/
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137094-bitcoin-big-short-already-get-far-worse?ifp=0&utoken=3751c8c7a8055589b6a092323f546d33
