Most mornings I get up and see what the bear is doing, ... most days iv got to know his personality and I can see what he's going to be like later in the day, .. if I feel that I know him well enough I might take a jab at him, test the water so to speak, .. as I'm not ready for a fight I'm just going to accept a scratch or a bruise, but it means I get to know him better for later on in the day.
Some days when I get up to see what he's like, it's like he's on steroids and methamphetamine (I'm guessing, iv never personally been in that state) .....
I know to leave him alone, .. any of 'tells' or weaknesses are not for me to take advantage of, .. he's like a maniac that could do something unexpected any moment and the best I can do is to leave him well alone, .. he may calm down later, .. he may not, but in the end, if I don't engage with him - I can't get hurt.
On most days if I watch him long enough I can see what kind of day he's having, .. he's susceptible to a jab here and a jab there, .. he tries to trip me up but I can see what he's trying to do and so I already plan for it,... it's important to remember that I will never kill him, he is way too powerful for that and I would be stupid to think that I can, .. but most days if I keep my guard up I can catch him out - and live another day.
If you still have no idea what I'm talking about then let me explain, ... this is how I trade the Mini Nasdaq futures scalping for single to double-digit ticks per contract. ( i make a few trades a day) . Hopefully, it should make more sense now.
What can be learned from wrestling with the bear?
Firstly and most importantly it doesn't matter how clever you think you are, .. you will never beat him, ... of course, that doesn't mean that you cant learn and take advantage of certain nuances that he has have before he strikes to take your head off, ... in this analogy, you have the option to just step out of the ring and he can't hurt you, ... step back in when you think you know him, .. take a swing.
Continuing with this analogy, there is a tendency to think after a string of successful trades that you now completely know the bear, .. you own him, and so as human habits go you think that you can go into the ring unprepared and even to smiling at people in the crowd - your fans, maybe even flirting and winking at the round number girls as they sit pretty at the ringside...
if you are agile and learn fast then you will recalibrate after the bear puts you on your arse.
If your not quick to learn and more poignantly are arrogant and unwilling to accept and change in his character, .. the bear will kill you.
I hope I'm making this clear, .. every day in trading is a new day, .. the bear has a different personality from day to day, .. as do you to a point, ... there can be an overwhelming feeling that the markets are going to the moon and you haven't jumped onto the shuttle (FOMO). - sit back, the markets are going no-where, .. if you miss a trade because you were late in understanding what was going on (understanding the bear's personality that day), .. then it's cool, wait for the next opportunity ... you don't engage him until you know him. and even when you think you know him accept that you might be wrong about him.
It's so important that the trader understands this, the bear is the psychology, therefore, the sum total of all the other traders and all the timeframes they trade-in and all the different account sizes you are up against. it's also the amalgamation of all the fear and greed and egos including yours where at some point now the 5-10 ticks are not enough.
There is no way that you are going to kill him, ..but if you are light, nimble and don't leave yourself exposed to him without knowing your risk, then you can take your pound of flesh from him.
PS - I'm aware that in the examples above I have referred to the Bear as 'he' perhaps misleading the reader that the Bear is a male in gender, this is done purely unintentionally, in fact, the bear is not- gender-specific, it's irrelevant, he's still a bastard.
Furthermore a word of warning from the experienced now, .. if you are going to search for stock photos for your post, and search on 'Big Bear, or 'Sexy bear' .. you may want to put the child filter on - its not pretty.
Best wishes, and if you are a trader then I wish you success in this for 2020.
If you are not a trader then I hope this post has still been some use to you and may 2020 bring your wishes to fruition.
God bless! ... yes - from the Goblin.
