Hey guys, I would like to continue with my market analysis of coins that I am mostly focused on. I am sorry for the delay in updates, but from now on I will try to be more consistent on this subject.
Lets start with Ethereum:
So what happend with Ethereum since I have called the top at around 380$ at the beginning of June this year. The price has been in correction mode for almost one month now. This trend is still on going and it needs further more time to correct itself because of the massive upmove of the last months. The reason for that have been explained in my previous posts.
https://steemit.com/steemit/@masterthematrix/a-short-market-recap-of-ethereum-steemit-and-pivx
In this month we are approaching an important moment in cryptocurrencys that everybody is aware of. So Bitcoin is having its major decision on how it should be improved thru Segwit at around end of July or first of August. However the Bitcoin community is going to decide, this event is going to bring more volatility to the overall crypto markets. Right now I will just focus on possible outcomes on the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In my point of view, we are not going to see a split up on the Bitcoin Blockchain. Therefore my prefered scenario is going to be a wild downside move in Bitcoin before the decision, and a nice move up after the main news have been released. Investors are going to sell before the event, because of uncertainty, and will buy back again after they realized how positive the improvements of SegWit are for the Bitcoin Blockchain.
So what does this mean for Ethereum? Because of the intercorrelated markets, many investors in Bitcoin will seek a safe haven in Ethereum and probably a few other altcoins, and therefore the price is going to rise before the news will be released. After the news has been released the fear will be gone out of the market, and investors are going to dump Ethereum again to get back into Bitcoin. This switching, in and out of positions is going to effect a lot of altcoins, especially those who are only tradeable in Bitcoins.
Ok, this is a Chart that probably traders would have drawn with less experience. It is obvious that the triangle will be broken in the next couple of days, and therefore has no value for the upcoming volatility which will occur in the markets at the end of July.
And this is a chart, which in my view, would represent more the upcoming volatility that could happen around August during the major event in Bitcoin. The horizontal lines are representing the fibonacci support levels and the circles are my major points of interest. I assume that at first there is going to be a big up move to maybe around 300-350$, and later on we could see a major sell off, because of the switching in positons, that will take Ethereum down to its final lows at around 130- 150$. In an extreme scenario we could also see very high peeks and very low peeks in the chart, but the main price action should occur in these circles.
My recommendation for all Investors, who beliefe in the long term success of both coins Bitcoin and Ethereum, is to cancel all there take profit stops before the event. There is no reason to get knocked out of position just because of this high volatility event and later on when the dust is settled the prices will stabilize again. So for me the best way to handle the situation is to move some of the funds into USD Tether (traded on Poloniex, Bittrex), which is an crypto USD equivalent, or to move funds into cryptos which you beliefe in most longterm like Steemit and have already shown outperformance like PIVX.
In my next blogs I will go more into detail about where you should move your funds in order to stay safe when the hurricane is blowing.
Till than, I wish you all happy trading and please share with me your comments, ideas and opinions!!!
