This is one man’s opinion and is not intended to be investment advice. Always do your own research before making an investment.
Math never lies and cash flows down the path of least resistance.
Look at the facts:
Taxia has an $11m market cap at the time of writing.
The project has been backed by Emergo also known as the commercial incubator for Cardano’s decentralized blockchain ecosystem. If Cardano is a quarterback, Emergo is the team recruiter bringing in star receivers and tackles.
Cardano is seeking to power the financial stack for the developing world already making partnerships with African governments. Emurgo's role is to help these nation’s economies to compete on the global scale.
Traxia is just one number in part of this grand equation. Turns out, a decentralized financial trade ecosystem developed for global import / export is a great tool in the belt when helping grow nations.
You can review their business plan in my other articles, but for now, just note that Traxia is targeting invoice purchasing of FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) in trade between Europe and Asia.
Decentralized options for Trade Finance:
My three favorite blockchain solutions for trade finance account for a total valuation of $300M at the time of writing:
(there are others in the space but these three have a leg up, imo)
Current and all time high market cap by project:
PPT - Populous
now - $270M
ATH -$ 2.7B
PPP - Paypie
now - $25M
ATH - $300M
TMT - Traxia
now - $11M
ATH - $22M
It is estimated that more than $43T is held in global accounts receivable everyday.
Banks currently finance 7% out of the $43T market which equates to $3T dollars a year. For the sake of argument we will use this as the goal of total market cap for decentralized trade financing programs. (keep in mind we are comparing real market share financed vs speculative valuation of decentralized options)
Global market = $43T
Banks market share = $3T
Current decentralized valuation - $300M
At this current moment, blockchain is valued to disrupt a mere .01% of the global accounts receivable market.
Of that .01%, Traxia is valued to take 2%.
Populous PPT has 90%
Pay Pie PPP has 8%
Traxia TMT has 2%
For decentralized options to increase in value and match the banks current standards of operations, $3T, and the current ratio held by the three blockchain companies remains the same, Traxia would be worth 10,000x or roughly $250 each.
This is not an easy goal to achieve but remember that 93% of the market is not being financed, so banks are not competition, rather their share is a baseline target of what blockchain trade finance can do.
Traxia is the underdog of an underdog market seeking to disrupt an industry in desperate need of help. There's lots of wiggle room for any company with or without Emergo's backing.
As I said in the beginning markets flows like water - down the path of least resistance.
Where will the money go?
It's clear that the crypto market has experienced another hype cycle and we are slowly returning to reality. Without real use case, speculation can only support so much.
However, the market will rebound once use cases are proven. Regulators, big banks, infrastructure, scalability, and attention continues to approve. Blockchain technology is here to stay and certain industries are in drastic need of overhaul. In my personal opinion, trade finance can benefit more then most of a transparent and immutable decentralized ledger.
Traxia sits as the new kid on the block with some of the best friends a startup could have in web 3.0. They are in an industry that is ripe for disruption yet speculated to utilize only .01% of their network on blockchain.
The money will flow to the projects that showcase their ability to perform, solving real world problems. While Traxia is setting itself up, only time will tell if they can truly disrupt the industry.
What do you think?
Disclaimer: I own PPP and TMT, and I am excited for the future of trade finance.