After one of the wildest MMA events ever we have had a little break and now the action returns with this Fight Night card taking place in Glendale, Arizona.
There's not too much drama coming into this one but that shouldn't lead you to believe it may not be worth watching. The main event has the potential to be a crazy fight and fight of the year candidate. The other 3 fights on the main card are set to be exciting too. There may not be as much action and crazy stuff before the event but there is a high probability there will be some during it.
MAIN EVENT
Dustin Poirier Vs Justin Gaethje
This has the makings to be a really exciting fight! Poirier has 7 post fight bonuses including 4 fight of the nights while Gaethje has 3 from just 2 appearances.
Poirier has a record of 22-5 plus one no contest from 2 fights ago when an illegal knee from Eddie Alverez in the 2nd round left him unable to continue to bring what was a really great fight to a rather disappointing climax. 11 of his victoires have came via knockout/tko, he has 6 submissions and 5 decisions. Despite having a rep for being "chinny" largely thanks to McGregor he had only suffered 2 knockout losses in his career, been submitted once and then lost his other 2 fights via decision.
Since getting knocked out by McGregor he went on a good run of 4 victories including 3 finishes before suffering another hard knockout loss against Michael Johnson after he missed a shot and left himself open. His 3 fights since then have all been highly entertaining, with a decision victory over Jim Miller, the aforementioned no contest with Alvarez and then a victory over Anthony Pettis. This was another fight though that had a somewhat of a disappointing climax with it officially being giving to Poirier as a knockout, though Pettis actually tapped while mounted due to a rib injury. Poirier had been looking good on the feet in that fight and busted Pettis up pretty bad but I felt that he was struggling when the fight was on the ground.
Justin Gaethje has a record of 18-1 with 15 knockouts, 1 submission and 2 decision victories. He is coming into this fight on the back of his first ever loss to Eddie Alvarez. He was knockout out in the 3rd round of an absolute war which was dubbed the fight to see who was the most violent man on the planet.
Gaethje seems to have not been too affected by the loss and actually seems glad that it happened in some interviews he has done since the fight. Despite being a NCAA Division I All American wrestler Gaethje doesn't really look to use his wrestling a whole lot preferring instead to keep the fight standing and strike not only with his fists but he also has quite a dangerous low kicking game. It's highly entertaining to watch as a fan and has won him lots of fans but there are those who worry for his health as he also takes a lot of punishment when he fights while dishing it out.
I see this being a fight fought almost entirely on the feet, I believe Poirier is going to fight similarly to how Alvarez fought against Gaethje, with lots of head movement and then combinations mixing his shots between the body and head. Cardio seemed to be a problem for Gaethje in that fight and might be a concern for him as this one is a 5 round fight. While Poirier hasn't been involved in a 4th or 5th round he doesn't seem to have a cardio issue in 3 round fights still going strong towards the end so I think he may have the edge if it goes into the later rounds.
I don't see it going the distance though and think Poirier leaves himself open too much and Gaethje will definitely be able to land shots on him.In the earlier stages of his fight with Alvarez, Gathje had a lot of success with leg kicks. Poirier relies more on kicks than Alvarez and adopts a different stance to him, I feel like the leg kicks did hurt Alvarez but could be even more damaging in this fight.
Prediction - Gaethje to win - knockout - Round 2
Carlos Condit Vs Alex Oliveira
Carlos Condit has been one of my favourite fighters to see fight over the years I've followed MMA but has been having a rough time of it pretty much since his decision loss to GSP back in 2012 with just 2 wins from his last 8 fights.
He is a former champion and has a record of 30-11 wit 15 knockout victories, 13 submissions and only 2 victories via decision. Of his defeats he has one knockout loss which came from a devastating low kick from Tyron Woodley which sent Condit spinning to the ground unable to continue. He has been submitted 4 times and then has 6 decision losses though some are contentious.
His last fight was a loss to Neil Magny via decision after quite a long time away from the cage.
Alex Oliveira has a record of 17-5-1 with 2 no contests. He's racked up 11 knockout victories and has 3 submission and decision wins apiece. He has 1 decision loss, been submitted 3 times and has 1 knockout loss in his last fight in a really exciting war against Yancy Medeiros.
He is stepping in on short notice after Condit's original opponent Matt Brown pulled out with an injury. While I was favouring Condit against Brown I feel that Oliveira is a much tougher task. He is less battle worn and has much quicker and powerful striking.
I for some reason fear for Condit in this one, despite him hanging with fighters way above Oliveira's level such as GSP, Lawler, Nick Diaz and a peak Hendricks those were some time ago and Oliveira will relish the striking war Condit is likely to engage in with him. I can see him having a lot of success early in the fight, he may not be able to finish Condit who's as tough as they come but could win the opening 2 rounds.
Prediction - Oliveira to win - Decision
Israel Adesanya Vs Marvin Vettori
Israel made his UFC debut in February at UFC221 and extended his very impressive record to 12 straight wins all via knockout with a 2nd round knockout over Rob Wilkinson.
Obviously you don't need me to tell you that his striking is pretty amazing as his record speaks for itself. He's devastatingly fast and also creative too adding in elbows, knee's kicks.
Marvin Vettori comes into the contest on the back of a draw at UFC 219 against Omari Akhemodov and has a record of 13-3-1. He has 2 knockouts and decision victories apiece and the rest of his 8 wins have came via decision.
This may be a much tougher ask for Israel as unlike Wilkinson, Vettori won't be as willing to engage in a stand up battle. It will be real interesting to see how good he can be in the other areas of MMA and do think the odds for a Vettori submission victory appeal at 11/1. But I do still favour Israel to take this one and hand Vettori his first ever stoppage loss, but feel it will be his toughest test and might only manage it late in the fight.
Prediction - Adesanya to win - Knockout - Round 3
Michelle Waterson Vs Cortney Casey
Waterson has a record of 14-6 with 3 knockouts, 2 decisions and an impressive 9 submission finishes compared to her 1 knockout loss, 3 submission defeats and 2 decision losses.
She was a fighter with a lot of hype around her after winning her first 2 fights in the UFC against Magana and Vanzant but then went on to be soundly defeated by the current champion Rose Namajunas and then picked up a decision loss to Tecia Torres.
Casey has 7 wins and 5 losses with only 1 decision win and 3 knockouts and submissions apiece. She has never been knocked out in her career and only been stopped once via submission early in her career. The other 4 losses have all came via way of decision. Her latest was a close split decision against Felice Herrig at UFC 218.
Waterson has a good striking game but seems to do a lot of wild spinning back kicks that often miss, Casey is tough and likes to press forward and throw big punches so this could be a decent fight too. Waterson is maybe technically superior but will be a lot smaller too which could limit her ability to hold down Casey and stop her getting a submission.
Prediction - Casey to win - Decision