Russia managed to seize less than 3,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024 - about the size of Luxembourg. The cost was 150,000 Russian soldiers killed, which is 10 times more than losses of the USSR in Afghanistan over 10 years.
The conquest of this 'Luxembourg' was made possible by what the Russians call "meat storms", known in the West as human wave attacks. The strategy aims to wear down the enemy and exhaust its resources.
For that reason, the Russian advance largely stalled in 2025 as the country lacks the manpower to continue feeding the meat grinder - the remaining workforce is essential for the Russian economy, which is facing a record labor shortage as reported by the Central Bank of Russia.
Russia's monthly losses in killed and wounded military personnel - www.minfin.com.ua
Russian territorial gains in Ukraine (sq. km), January 2024 - April 2025 - Agentstvo
Human wave attacks have another disadvantage: in the era of the internet, every Russian has some idea of how Putin is using his soldiers in Ukraine — few are willing to sign up as contract soldiers, knowing their chances of survival are slim.
A sharp rise in desertions has been reported. Mobilized individuals are kept in basements to be coerced into participating in human wave attacks.
A lack of manpower isn’t Russia’s only problem. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that with oil prices at $60 per barrel, the Russian budget will face shortfalls; he urged officials 'to be more modest in desires.' Vladimir Milov, a Russian opposition politician in exile, put it bluntly: 'There is literally no money left to continue the war.'
The lack of money for war is starting to be felt. Even Russia’s wealthiest region, Moscow, can no longer increase enlistment bonuses for military contracts and plans to compensate for the financial shortfall with intensified patriotic propaganda.
The Russian Defense Ministry’s official expenditures doubled the originally planned number, reaching $59 billion in 2024. Vladimir Milov estimates that this disclosed figure represents only a quarter of the total military spending, meaning Russia’s actual defense budget could range from $150 to $200 billion.
Having enough money for weapons is one thing; procuring them is another.
Russia's defense industry is struggling to meet the military's demand, while stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment have been depleted.
More than half of the artillery shells currently used by Russia are supplied by North Korea. However, North Korea’s own ammunition reserves are limited.
Another key arms supplier, Iran, also faces constraints due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Thus, Russia lacks the funds to sustain the war, its army is facing a shortage of weapons — something even Putin has recently acknowledged, and its human resources are stretched thin. In such conditions, keeping sanctions in place is crucial - if Russia gains access to advanced technology, its military machine could last much longer.