It was a bright and cold day across Long island. Despite the sunshine, highs failed to get out of the 30s this afternoon. The sun is now gone too, as clouds have taken over from the west, setting the stage for some out next system to move in overnight. We will actually be dealing with 2 parts of this storm.
Part 1 will arrive during the early morning hours Tuesday as a warm front approaches. Winter weather advisories have been issued for much of the area north and west of NYC as they will be seeing some frozen precipitation. Given the cold air in place and the overnight timing of this all, parts of the island may indeed see some as well, at least initially. With a relatively deep cold layer aloft, the only question is does the ground level stay warm enough for melting before the precip reaches the surface. My thought is that it will be cold enough at the onset for some wet snow and sleet before a gradual changeover to a cold rain Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will slowly rise overnight as the warm front passes through, and any steady light rain will end later Tuesday morning. The afternoon remains gloomy with cloudy skies and drizzle. Part 2 then arrives as we head into Tuesday night, as the cold front and storm center move through. This could mean a brief downpour overnight and maybe even a thunderstorm!
It will turn windy and gradually much colder as the storm pulls away Wednesday morning. Conditions will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies through Thursday, but a gusty northwest wind will send wind chills down into the 20s. On Friday we lose the wind, but the actual air temperatures will be at or below freezing, making for the coldest day in quite a while. Saturday will be similar, but clouds will increase. This is where things get interesting.
The next storm system will dig out of the southern plains and become amplified by a piece of northern energy. With all of the cold air in place, it may simply come down to the placement and movement of this storm whether or not we see snow this weekend. The GFS is currently very bullish, spitting out numbers over a foot this afternoon. The Euro does indeed have a storm forming, but it has it heading to the southeast of the area and out to sea, with numbers of only a few inches.
Needless to say, a lot of uncertainty remains, but I will be keeping a very close eye on this in the coming days. Keep this in the back of your head for now. --Geoff
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Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.weatherlongisland.com/messy-mix-early-tuesday-possible-weekend-storm-in-the-works/