Could this be the start of a sino-us trade war?Talks between China and the us have stalled since the us imposed a 10 per cent tariff on $200bn of Chinese goods on September 24, but the us has recently shown signs of detente and both sides appear intent on opening their hearts to each other.
The latest news is that us Treasury secretary mnuchin and Chinese vice premier liu he held a telephone conversation on September 9 to discuss easing trade tensions between the two countries.The two sides are trying to settle trade issues, and a meeting of the two presidents at the G20 summit in late November is likely to be a turning point in the sino-us trade war.
The stalling of the trade war between China and the us is now all but guaranteed less than 20 days before the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
At the same time, some in the industry say it needs to consider the U.S. government's claim to be seeking direct talks with Chinese leaders while threatening to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese goods in early December.Most people are worried about the real sincerity of the us government's ambivalence about its soft power, and are wary of putting up other obstacles.
America is showing signs of detente, but there is some resistance
Enter since November, the U.S. government's position and attitude toward China has released and tender, trade war appears obvious signs of easing, in early November there, according to people familiar with the President of the United States trump hope at the end of November at the G20 summit to reach a deal with China on trade issues, and has asked the major U.S. officials have begun drafting possible terms.
Media reports that according to the Reuters and AFP thereof on Wall Street, many American elite are at the end of the try to urged the U.S. to sino-us trade disputes, even before many of America's politicians think things have reached the end of time, to this end, former us secretary of state Henry kissinger to China and China's top direct dialogue, the trump recently there has been a subtle change in his attitude of China, how many tentative action.
Signs already appear to be pointing towards reconciliation.
At the moment, the best that the industry can expect from the G20 meeting of the two heads of state is that the two sides might reach some kind of "cease-fire" agreement, make positive progress, the United States will not impose new tariffs on China, and then start more specific negotiations.
Zhao zhongxiu, vice President of the university of international business and economics (uibe), told the China times that the us government has been repeating the trade game repeatedly, and its attitude and approach have no bottom line, which has aggravated China's difficulties in judging.China considers the worst possible outcome, but it also has its own strategic resolve.
At the same time, U.S. China hawks, who are eager for tangible benefits in recent trade battles, continue to be a major obstacle to sino-u.s. trade relations.
A researcher with the institute, deputy director of the institute of international market, the ministry of commerce of the bai, in an interview with the huaxia times reporter believe that China has always with a positive attitude to deal with china-us economic relations and trade friction, whether the two sides reached 2017 "one hundred plan", or during a visit by signing a $253.5 billion trump economic and trade cooperation, reflects China's sincerity.But before the ink was dry, the United States was always making new unreasonable demands. If it was always so insincere, China's concessions would only make the United States go further.China cannot always be asked to back down. It should give and take.
"China and the us can show their attitude at the G20, but real implementation is needed at the practical level, which requires the us to show its sincerity."Bai Ming said.
Another tariff would be bad for both sides
Since the beginning of sino-us trade friction this year, not only American consumers and American enterprises have been hit hard, but Chinese enterprises have also been affected and suffered corresponding losses.
Current jingdong financial vice President, chief economist shen jianguang recently published an article in the FT, points out that this year on September 24 in trump tariffs on China's $200 billion listing, the U.S. imports from China furniture and leather goods products account for more than half of the import tariffs will no doubt increase the domestic commodity price pressures.If Mr Trump goes further and raises taxes on all goods from China, it will hurt American consumers, given that China now imports 90% of the country's umbrellas, 80% of its toys, 70% of its headwear, 60% of its luggage, and more than 50% of its shoes and textiles.
Craig Allen, President of the U.S.Many companies are so dependent on trade that they have to adjust their supply chains in the face of higher tariffs.Small and medium-sized enterprises, in particular, will struggle and may even withdraw from the market.For service businesses, the impact is small, but if trade tensions rise, it will eventually affect their markets.
China times understands that caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction machinery and mining equipment, recently said it incurred about $40 million in additional costs in the latest quarter due to rising steel import tariffs and freight charges.Ford motor also said in September that steel tariffs had reduced its profits by $1 billion.In August, Element Electronics, a south Carolina company that assembles television sets, planned to lay off nearly all of its workers.
Craig Allen said the trade friction between China and the United States has created volatility in the stock market, which has hit both companies hard.This has hampered growth, which, if sustained, could lead to a drop of 1 percentage point or more.This is bad for everyone.
For China, most foreign trade companies have shown a shift in market share, adding to fears of another sustained or escalating trade war.For example, wu weifeng, assistant general manager of jiangsu sumei da textile international trade co., said in a telephone interview with the China times that the trade war will reduce the share of some foreign trade enterprise suppliers in China in the next year.Jiang li, foreign trade director of Zhejiang Bangjie Digital Knitting Share Co.,Ltd., previously told reporters that some raw materials and equipment were on the list of tariffs in the United States this year, and that if the United States persisted in imposing tariffs, the impact on the apparel industry would be severe.
In addition, the industry is also concerned that economic globalization and the multilateral trading system are likely to be undermined by the United States if a trade war does not stall or escalate again.
In zhao zhongxiu's opinion, the us government adopts the us priority and beggar-thy-neighbor approach. In a sense, it actually goes against the original intention of "working together with the G20 to solve global governance and cope with the impact of the global economic crisis". "we hope the G20 can achieve a positive outcome.""Said zhao zhongxiu.