I will here state that the outflow of tokens does perfectly balance the inflow of fiat - otherwise such transactions would not - could not - proceed.
Your statement misses the point. Allow me to illustrate the point I wanted to make with a simple example.
Imagine at moment t0 that we'll use as a baseline there are people wanting to sell 3 HIVE and people willing to spend $1 to buy HIVE. The transaction proceeds and establishes a price of 0.33 USD / HIVE.
Then at moment t1 the sellers want to exchange 4 HIVE but the demand stays at $1. So compared to t0 there is an imbalance: while the inflow of fiat has remained stable, the outflow of HIVE has increased (from 3 HIVE to 4 HIVE). Yet the transactions, contrary to what you state CAN and DO proceed, provided the buyers and sellers agree for a price of HIVE that decreases from $0.33/HIVE to $0.25/HIVE.
HBD isn't pegged to Hive, but the USD. The USD is losing it's value rather precipitously, as $1 today is worth ~$.50 in 1999 dollars.
This imbalance can increase and we can for instance reach a moment tn when there are 20 HIVE that the sellers want to unload yet still only $1 in fiat that is willing to buy HIVE. At that point the transactions can STILL proceed despite the fact that there is an obvious mismatch of supply and demand between tn and the baseline at t0. For the transaction to happen indeed the necessary and sufficient condition is for buyers and sellers to agree on a price of $0.05/HIVE. At that point HBD DEPEGS and its holders are imposed a "haircut". They lose part of their capital which can anihilate more more than just the interest earned till then but also eat into their invested capital. That comes on top of the decline in the value of the USD you point at.
To my question "Do you see other reasons [to buy HIVE]" you answer, rather off-topic:
Yes. One of the most valuable treasures people can have is the forthright discussion of matters important to them with their peers.
While I agree on the importance of free speech, I'd like to point out that exercising free speech on Hive, it does NOT require that one BUYS HIVE. One can post on Hive more than daily and earn tokens without ever buying HIVE, all it needs is a friend to create a free account and delegate 20 HP until that new user accumulates enough HP itself to become self-sustained.
and the value of Hive tokens depends on the strength of the community associating on Hive.
I tend to agree with that in principle. But principles still rely on practical economic mechanisms. Unfortunately there is very little to no strength in the Hive community - most users are here to "milk the cow". I have said long ago already, in Steem times, that in order to gather strength as a community (and thus begin accruing value in the token) we need a charter by which I was meaning a set of shared values, a mission, a sense of purpose. And we need social responsibility to discourage antisocial behaviour.
Your analysis misses the fact that the underlying Hive technology is capable of so much more than being a social media platform, as is illustrated by games such as Splinterlands and by the financial applications around spendHBD and Distriator. These applications are completely indiferent to Hive displaying "social media" features and build instead on other excellent design attributes of the same blockchain.
Every exchange of Hive for fiat is equally an on-ramp as it is an off-ramp.
You miss the point. HIVE is barely quoted in fiat. On-ramping means exchanging fiat for USDC / USDT most of the time. This faces higher legal hurdles than exchanging USDC / USDT for fiat. Not every on-ramp is an off-ramp as USDC and USDT can be created and destoyed in proportion to the total amount of fiat having crossed the portal into the cryptoverse. Some on-ramps mint new USDC / USDT. Some off-ramps destroy USDC / USDT.
Perhaps the 20k HBD payment would make Transak reconsider their facilitation of Hive transactions?
Yes, this is actually an excellent point you have there. I doubt it will, but it's worth a try
Thanks!
RE: Zypto sleuthing