The ecash treasure chest came to the Wusang game this past October. There is an cache of ecash hidden in the game. Ecash is a way to send bitcoin sats (think Lightning Network, but not Lightning). Each day, I've wondered, "Is today the day the treasure will be found?"
The odds of finding the treasure cache are low...users have only a 1 in 10,000 chance. But, that's the idea. This is to be a rare event. So, you might wonder, "How long until someone actually finds it?"
To figure that, we need to do a little math. Understand, I've had no training in probability and I may be wrong here, but I'm doing my best! To estimate the "when?", we need to use the daily rate of "mining" HBIT...the way that Hivers "look" for the treasure. The current 30-day average is about 38 HBIT mined per day.
Going back to October 21, 2024 when the ecash treasure was set up, and tracing along until today, it's been about 100 days exactly. The mining numbers then were about 30/day and have been creeping upward lately. 30 times 100 gives us 3,000 tries at finding the treasure. So, at 3,000 out of 10,000. It still is no surprise that the treasure has not been found. When someone tries to find the treasure, the odds are still 1 in 10,000 regardless of any number of fails or successes prior. The prior 3,000 fails don't make the chances any better going forward.
But, still, we should be getting close. A way to look at it might be to take a 6-sided die as an example. Suppose I want to roll a 4 to "win." I roll and get:
- not a 4
- not a 4
- not a 4
- not a 4
- not a 4
- On this roll, the odds are still 1-in-6 to get a 4, the previous fails have not changed those odds, but, we must be getting close.
Rolling dice like this and looking for a 4, we'd expect that in six rolls we'd hit on a 4 at some point.
With HBIT/Wusang, with 10,000 tries, we'd expect to hit on the treasure some time in the 10,000 attempts or soon thereafter. At the current rate HBIT/Wusang is going, 10,000 tries should occur some time around July of 2025. Of course, the ecash cache might be found any time before then, maybe today, or after, maybe long after. Who knows?
To sum, I expect the ecash treasure cache should be found by this summer, by July 2025.
But, whenever. Pinning down the time isn't possible, what's known is that someone is going to find it.
- Wusang ecash cache update and how much is in there? (Note: it's not a huge amount, but it is actual bitcoin satoshis.): @crrdlx/updating-wusang-ecash-cache-treasure-supply
- Ecash how to: @crrdlx/ecash-via-cashume
- How to look for the treasure, see: https://wusang.vercel.app/pages/play.html
I go by @crrdlx or "CR" for short. See all my links or contact info at https://linktr.ee/crrdlx.