With the explosive launch of the Conclave Arcana Pre-Sale and its enticing new pack types—Standard, Alchemy, and Legendary—it was clear from the start that demand for Midnight Potions would spike. These potions, critical for unlocking the true potential of Alchemy and Legendary packs, immediately became one of the most coveted resources across Land plots. And, true to form, the fireworks lit up early—prices surged, the crafting race began, and potion supply could barely keep up.
But fast forward to now, during the general sale phase, and we’re seeing a very different story: prices have dropped. Not because demand has disappeared—pack buying has continued at a solid pace—but because supply has finally caught up. As expected, many Landowners (myself included) have shifted resource production toward crafting potions, leveraging the flexibility of Land to capitalize on perceived economic inefficiencies.
To help track this trend, I’ve been leaning heavily on tools like @PeakMonsters’ Richlist, which has become my go-to for understanding the balance between unopened packs and available Midnight Potions—both held and listed. What’s interesting is that there are still not enough potions in circulation to open all the existing packs. That might sound bullish at first glance, but the pricing story isn’t playing out that way.
Here’s why:
- Speculative Holding of Packs
Many players are choosing not to open their packs immediately. Given the inclusion of chase variants (like Black Foil and Arcane versions), there's a reasonable expectation that the last packs opened in the set will carry added value due to diminishing supply. Holding for the future isn’t just emotional—it’s strategic. - Slow Potion Production by Pack Holders
It’s highly likely that a good chunk of those holding packs are also producing Midnight Potions themselves. They’re not turning to the market; they’re simply playing the long game—crafting slowly, opening methodically, and avoiding the need to overpay during price spikes.
So, despite the visible shortfall of potions relative to packs, we’ve reached what feels like a short-term economic equilibrium. Prices are down, but that doesn’t mean the resource isn’t in demand—it’s just that the urgency has faded.
For now, I’ve decided to pause my own Midnight Potion crafting, at least temporarily. The current price doesn’t justify the opportunity cost of producing them versus other resources, especially as my focus shifts back toward land efficiency and prepping for potential Conflicts ahead. That said, I’ll continue to monitor this closely—especially if we see another major wave of pack openings or a surprise announcement that could tilt demand sharply again.
This is the beauty (and challenge) of Splinterlands: it rewards observation, patience, and adaptability. And in the Midnight Potion economy, that balance is everything.
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