This was somewhat of a mixed week at times enjoying it but also kind of getting burned out in the last 2 matches on Sunday which more often is the case. The good thing however is that despite being down a bit I did not chase anything which many would be doing. The main sentiment remains that the edge simply is small and each time I have a good grasp knowing what I want to bet the odds and lines are overly adjusted which makes gambling on the other side the thing theoretically to do. However when trying this it nearly always backfires. So I'm mainly just keeping stakes low and on bets that I have more confidence on it often feels like losing coinflips.
So beating the market remains a challenge as edge at least feels small based on the way I handicap the matches while I so far haven't found a way to think outside the box and find things that others don't see.
Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2024-2025
I only had 1 confident pre-game bet on Charleroi +0.25 @ 1.920 which closed at 1.757 odds and always should at least won half as Charleroi was the arguably the better team and they missed a penalty. That not going in was a 0.5 unit swing but it was kind of predictable as Heymans who talks about his penalties in a podcast had a high chance of kicking in the middle while the keeper didn't choose a corner. So good again in terms of expected value but variance going against me which has been the big trend so far this season.
Previous 4 Seasons Result
Aside from sharing my previews and bets on my Blog, I also cover all matches live in our SBC Discord Channel sharing all the bets I take. The main purpose is to stay sharp and keep myself accountable.
Season 2024-2025 Personal Betting Chart
So overall just a -0.238 unit loss over the week and still a loss over the season which very much can be managed.
Regular Season Results 2024-2025
Week 18 Results 46 Bets | 21W-24L-01P | Staked 04.646u | -0.238u Loss
Week 17 Results 49 Bets | 27W-16L-06P | Staked 05.230u | +1.264u Profit
Week 16 Results 21 Bets | 06W-11L-04P | Staked 02.753u | -0.936u Loss
Week 15 Results 45 Bets | 13W-29L-04P | Staked 04.665u | -0.149u Loss
Week 14 Results 46 Bets | 13W-29L-04P | Staked 04.962u | -1.2591u Loss
Week 13 Results 27 Bets | 08W-15L-04P | Staked 03.074u | -1.101u Loss
Week 12 Results 63 Bets | 39W-16L-08P | Staked 04.874u | +1.737u Profit
Week 11 Results 37 Bets | 14W-17L-06P | Staked 03.871u | -0.347u Loss
Week 10 Results 62 Bets | 19W-39L-04P | Staked 07.324u | -1.849u Loss
Week 09 Results 62 Bets | 30W-25L-07P | Staked 06.600u | +0.216u Profit
Week 08 Results 26 Bets | 16W-07L-03P | Staked 03.921u | +0.963u Profit
Week 07 Results 50 Bets | 21W-17L-12P | Staked 05.544u | +0.403u Profit
Week 06 Results 28 Bets | 14W-11L-03P | Staked 03.824u | +0.825u Profit
Week 05 Results 38 Bets | 14W-19L-05P | Staked 05.130u | -0.522u Loss
Week 04 Results 51 Bets | 18W-27L-06P | Staked 05.308u | -0.512u Loss
Week 03 Results 44 Bets | 13W-28L-04P | Staked 06.999u | -1.305u Loss
Week 02 Results 48 Bets | 22W-25L-01P | Staked 06.270u | -0.429u Loss
Week 01 Results 34 Bets | 11W-14L-09P | Staked 04.245u | +0.145u Profit
Week 00 Results 10 Bets | 05W-04L-01P | Staked 00.860u | -0.046u Loss
Total Season 2023-2024 Results
789 Bets | 333W-363L-93P | 90.100 Staked | -3.045u Loss | -3.38% ROI
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