We are so damn close!
So my last technical analysis post on Bitcoin was a full month ago on March 12th. The title? The Cramer Kiss of Death. As you might be able to infer from context... my outlook was uncharacteristically bearish on the short term.
Looking for my astrology TA I don't see it there, I notice that I have another post from 11 days ago called Wen Uptrend.
the plan has been to simply wait until mid April before reassessing the situation. Until then the downtrend is still fully intact.
Imagine my surprise when people are coming into my comments during all this tariff drama to tell me the sky is falling. The sky is not falling, actually. Bitcoin has done nothing than exactly what I've been saying it's going to do. I've been saying bearish till mid April for over a month now. This is based on the downtrend coming to a point at support during that time and astrology retrogrades ending.
The Bitcoin chart actually looks amazing.
The tariff nonsense doesn't even register as a blip on this chart. It will be forgotten forever; I guarantee it. No one will ever talk about it like they do with COVID or the Trump Pump to $100k. Huge nothing burger is nothing.
Healthy reminder that the news does not dictate the price, and can only catalyze the price. When it looks like the news pushes Bitcoin in a direction, usually Bitcoin wanted to head it that direction anyway and just needs a little something to sweeten the deal to make that happen. I've written about this many times and from what I can tell it gets proven correctly quite often. Notable exceptions are events like COVID where the price crashes 50% in a single day but then recovers very quickly because the price was never supposed to go that low to begin with.
So how are we looking now?
Pretty great honestly. We've tested the hardcore rock-bottom trench at $72k-$77k and thus far have only been there for 3 daily candles. We continue to crab in the liquidity void at $77k-$85k, which again was totally expected. There have been zero surprises, and I REPEAT that the tariff drama isn't even visible on the chart whatsoever. This was the expected movement for the last six weeks, as can be seen from all the posts I've written on BTC analysis during that time.
Teal MA(25) still acting as resistance.
And you'll notice that teal line is also at the top of the downtrend wedge, so that's interesting. We have a strong double resistance in play right here. This actually might be a good time to throw in a very aggressive but very low risk short. I'm talking like x100 short but only risk like $25.
Actually I'm going to take myself up on this bet right now... already have it setup. Borrow $3000 with a stop-loss at $84k. If the position gets busted I lose 0.00048297 BTC, which looks to be around $40. These are the kinds of stress-free bets I can get behind without it affecting my mood from a second to second basis.
In any case just because I now have an active short in the works doesn't mean I'm actually bearish. I've absurdly bullish right now, as this downtrend gets weaker and weaker by the day. Whereas the supports stand tall and overbearing at their respective horizontal positions.
I must admit that I am a little annoyed at myself for not taking my own advice... because I definitely remember blogging about counter-trading the death-cross at 50/200 which is often a solid move because the MA(50) is a very weird line. We dipped to $75k and I did nothing. I guess my heart just wasn't in it at the time.
Speaking of death-crosses... we only have one left to go, and we can see those green Goliaths slowly creeping ever closer. At the current trajectory it looks like they would cross in early May... which I definitely interpret as a counter signal. They are parallel enough at the moment to glance off one another and signal the next rally. I've seen that happen over many iterations, and the timing would be quite ideal.
Other metrics: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
Alts are getting murdered... obviously... which is why so many people are freaking out about the tariffs. The maximalists are just laughing it off. Buy more Bitcoin when it's cheap continues to be the lesson that needs learning.
Dominance continues trading inside the ascending wedge, which at this point is actually kind of impressive if I'm being honest. Impressive... AND REALLY ANNOYING. I thought FOR SURE that we were about to start a rampaging alt market during that false breakout to the downside. That false breakout even has a classic rejection from the bottom of the uptrend but then just pulled a 'W' back into the channel. Unreal.
But what's done is done, and all I can say at this point is that anyone who actually has Bitcoin and the ability to rotate into alts... the charts are saying that now might be a pretty damn good time to do it. I bought a tiny bit of Hive (4000) out of principal because we got back to 250 sats and I said I was going to, but I wish I had the resources to do a whole lot more.
Oh well perhaps I get the opportunity to stack a whole lot more BTC in the future (like if Hive somehow gets back to those insane 5000 sat valuations). Printing an x20 against Bitcoin seems out of the realm of possibility right now but anything is possible once an alt market pops its head up. I'm ready for a spectacle.
Heatmap shows what we already know.
Bears are winning and they have been winning for some time now. There are many short positions just towering above the market all the way up to all time highs. Of course the thing about shorts is that they always lose eventually and the laggards always get wrecked. All these people have borrowed Bitcoin and now they have to buy it back to pay down their debt. A big squeeze is coming sooner or later, but probably next month in May I'm thinking.
Conclusion
Well my short was up $40 just now which is what I was risking so I just flash-closed it and took the money. Bet small and bet often I guess!
Bitcoin is still in a downtrend which is very obvious from it getting slapped down at the MA(25) over and over and over again. We need to be trading above that line for like a week straight before we can think about an uptrend. Luckily the chart is showing us that the current downtrend we are in is completely out of runway, so either we need a new downtrend or a reversal. My money is on the reversal considering everything I've been seeing over the last couple months.
Mid April is less than a week away and so it's time for me to stick to the plan and start getting bullish while everyone else loses their damn minds. The full moon is... tomorrow so hopefully we get a nice dip I can long. These recent alternating green-red-green-red-green daily candles are indicative of a shift; a shift that I was already expecting around this time anyway. Could be confirmation bias, or could be that sticking to the plan actually works (which has been my experience countless times).
Either way "extreme fear" at $82k is pretty funny.
That was the all time high five months ago.