Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Watching the markets currently is quite stressful
The whole question of whether we enter a bear market or head up to 100k is currently being fought out and I have argued that the crossroads is now at about 37k. Note that this isn't on the daily chart, but on the weekly chart. As long as the weekly candle closes above 37k (which is increasing every week) we are still in bull territory. As you can see we are just barely hanging in there...
The good news for now is that price held above the two support lines and prices recovered from a higher low (compare the lows from January 24th and Feb 24th). This movement is in itself bullish, but it is not enough to confirm that the initial break out on February 4th will hold.
Here we see the macro perspective. There is a good case to be made that Bitcoin still has room to the upside; and from a time perspective it should peak in summer 2022. This would make it a "3 wave bull market top" which hasn't happened before in this form. Alternatively Bitcoin heads down and then I would expect to see 26k fairly soon... (the support from the orange trend line).
All in all these are interesting times for the crypto market
We are seeing lots of (incoming) regulation which has been sped up with the Russia-Ukraine crisis.with the EU trying to ban Russian crypto holdings (not sure how that would work). The question is this: will Bitcoin (cryptos) withstand this regulatory onslaught and can it decouple itself from the legacy market? If so, bitcoin might rally even if the crisis does not get resolved. But my gut feeling is that we will first see a closer tie to the legacy markets before a potential decoupling could occur. At the end it comes down to people seeing the potential of the crypto industry for growth and development for humanity as a whole. And with this also comes a realization that crypto is here to stay because the best projects/blockchains are out of reach of nation states.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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