Good day Hiveians!
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In June I possibly made the best TA prediciton so far
Back then, Hive was trading at around 30 cents and we were sitting at a 3-4 year long supporting trend line that got broken. I made the outrageous prediction of this just before we saw the big drop that took us down to the predicted (!) 14 cents. Without patting myself too much on the back, this TA was amazing for 2 reasons: it anticipated the drop of ~50% and correctly predicted the extent of the drop to around 14 cents as well. Here is the chart again:
As you can see I also have price picking up rather remarkably at around the current time frame getting us back to around 30 cents in October. If this also happens - well I guess it’s strike 3 then!
Yesterday/this night we got another middle sized pump (and the normal dump after it) at the usual 00:00 UTC. While it’s completely unclear if this will be the start of a sustainable upward movement, it’s definitely what we would like to see if this were to start.
There is a very big resistance coming up at the 30 cents as well. We have the former macro supporting trend line (now turned resistance) as well as the macro trend line from the previous highs which acts as a resistance as well (purple). If we do get the movement up to this area it will be a pivotal point of Hive as another rejection here could spell disaster for the 2025 time frame. I am predicting that price will rush beyond it and retest this area before climbing higher, however. It will be an interesting couple of months.
Volume analysis
Another thing to notice is the change in volume for Hive. Both in quantity as well as where it is traded. While Upbit is still the exchange with the highest volume, there is a clear signal for Binance which shows an increase in volume there.
Volume on Upbit has been quite consistently trading between 1M and 5M Hive throughout the years. We can also see that it is extremely volatile with trading spikes to 300M+ in recent years (!). Overall it is a fairly consistent picture, however.
For Binance things are a bit different. We can see that volume overall is much lower and had a range of around 340k to 1.4M Hive. However, there is a clear trend change here: Starting in September of 2023 we can see colume increasing gradually and in February 2024 we can see a new floor for the daily volume traded at around 1.4M. That is almost a 4x increase in continuous volume!
Conclusion
Things could be at a turning point for Hive. If price does reach the projected 30 cents in a month or so, this could be the initial confirmation for the much bigger run up to potentially $5 or so. This would be the target is we project the price increase of the last bull run onto current price. Volume analysis also shows that more Hive is being traded on Binance which I would call a positive development. I have long suspected that Upbit has been manipulating Hive’s price and there is nothing good coming from having so much Hive stored there. Now we still have to open up Hive to the DeFi world through decentralized smart contracts and the sky is the limit!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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