Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
What's Up With Hive?
It's been some time since I last analyzed Hive. It hasn't been exactly exciting either. Hive is still caught in the 20s price zone and even made a new All Time Low against BTC some weeks ago. Who would have thought? This bull cycle certainly isn't too spectacular for Alts - BTC, on the other hand, has been pretty much on target. I already talked about the novelty for this cycle in the post linked above: essentially, Alts don't have time to peak with BTC at the end of this year, at least if they want to pull off some kind of an impressiveish rally. So the idea in my mind is starting to thicken that perhaps Alts could peak sometime in 2026 (with BTC going for a fake out new ATH). It's not too convincing, I know, but that's all the hopium I got left. It still seems more realistic than Alts completely underperforming and then entering a 90% correction bear market (Whelps!).
TA
It's been dawning on me that Hive has been making a very consistent fractal of a bigger one back in 2021. Let me know if you see the same pattern:
It's a pretty accurate fractal imo. If so, the smaller fractal could play out like so:
It doesn't look all too exciting, right? I would actually favor such a scenario based on the strength of this fractal. However, this is a bull year, right? Right?! If so, then I would expect this fractal to fracture right at the "D" or "E" spot. In other words, instead of continuing back down to (bear) "F", price would head up to the (bull) "F".
We have a very strong resistance in the 40s from the past peaks we have had. This could either be "the end" which, honestly, would be dramatic (a bull peak in the 40s?!) or... it will be overcome and accumulate in the "alt ALT peak" sometime in 2026.
Conclusion
It's probably safe to say that none of us here expected such a disappointing bull run (for Hive/Alts). The best case I can see is Hive peaking at around $2 in 2026. That of course would not be terrible, but merely a 10x from current levels and not a new ATH. And the problem is that this scenario is hinged on a cycle shift which we haven't seen so far in crypto. So not exactly a rosy outlook.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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