Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
My last crypto post was provocative because I argued that the bear market with the latest crash might have already come to an end
While this is obviously highly speculative, I think I gave some pretty arguments for why this might actually be the case. Sure, there is still some wiggle room to about 19k for Bitcoin, but basically the main correction would be finished. If so, there would still be several months of sideways movement and perhaps in Fall/Winter a new rally.
Some weeks ago I presented 4 scenarios for Hive of which 2 seem to be remaining.
Here is the first:
While in this scenario we would still drop to about 25 cents (5 cents lower than the new low), the basic idea is that Hive would enter a parallel channel. This is still super bullish as most other coins have long left this possibility behind. With 25 cents Hive would be down more than 90% from the ATH and I think it could qualify for a bear market bottom.
But there is another scenario for the ultimate bear:
In this scenario Hive would go all the way down to about 15 cents. But I think this is quite unlikely for the moment as Hive has progressed a lot from its inception in 2020 and I doubt that there is enough selling pressure for such a short term strong sell off. Hive has a strong hodl community and for now I am putting this scenario into the back seat (but it's obviously still a possibility).
The current chart
The markets are still unstable and I am unsure if the bottom is in. And although Hive briefly spiked below the ascending channel we are still in it. It is not yet invalidated since price is still in this channel in the daily and weekly chart (a wick does not invalidate it IMO). If Hive can remain in this channel, it is super bullish as almost no other coin was able to do this in the last months of the bear market. We also saw a confirmation of the horizontal trend line. Price was rejected perfectly at 68 cents. The question now is: can Hive breach this trend line in a second attempt? However, there is a lot of resistance in this are forward, which is why I think it is still unlikely to happen.
I am currently favoring the parallel channel scenario which would see a correction down to about 25 cents. But the idea is that with such a movement it would also mark the end of the main correction phase. After this a new macro impulse wave would set in which would probably still only result in a sideways movement for the next months (but no new lower lows).
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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