Good day Hiveians!
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I will argue here that Hive has entered its next impulse wave
If you haven't seen some of my last posts about Hive you can check them out here. In them I presented several scenarios with the "blue" one for now confirmed. Hive basically did a retracement back to the last supporting trend line which was constructed by connecting the lows of January and June 2021. This gave us pretty much the exact price target I mentioned earlier at around 31 cents.
We then get one support line which converges with the before mentioned 45 cents support (for the current time). But the other one goes even lower to about 31 cents (for the current time)
So now that we are in this new ascending channel the question is of course how stable is it? There is no guarantee that price will remain in this blue area, especially if Bitcoin drops again. As outlined before I still expect Bitcoin to drop to 22k, but before that we might get a rally taking us to ~$1 again. If so, a big drop would take us back to the support of this channel.
Let us compare the two "mega" drops from 2021 and 2022 (to 16 cents and 35 cents)
They are almost identical! For now at least... If 2022 is similar to 2021 price should continue to increase and make a "V" shaped recovery. That would mean that Hive would be at around 70-80 cents in the next few weeks. That would be a ~150% increase!
So are we in the next impulse wave? If so, then we can see a pattern of several impulse waves before this one all lasting several months. I made this latest one a bit wider as they seem to be lengthening. If this trend continues, we could expect price to increase to perhaps $3-5 in that time frame.
But there is a caveat. Hive first needs a confirmation that it can go above this horizontal divide again. If not, we could actually first see a sideways movement for several months ad perhaps even a further decline in price again staying in the green area.
Conclusion
I am quite confident that Hive won't fall lower than the 30-40 cents area (at least for the coming weeks). Instead, I expect prices to rally perhaps to the 60-80 cents range. A big test will be the horizontal divide which should be upcoming shortly!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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