Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Back in January I presented 3 Scenarios for 2023
If you missed it or don't remember, check it out here. While in February it looked like we could be heading for the 2nd one (which was the most bullish one), it is clear now that this is not the case. I did have hopes for a spring/summer rally, but we didn't get it. Instead, we are very well on our way to the first (and most likely one of the three) scenario which you can see here again:
While price did not quite go to the 0.60s, the shape of the movement is pretty spot on. The rejection once again came from the horizontal orange trend line which is now sending price back to the macro blue supporting trend line. Support there seems very probable and could entail a price reversal. But even so, this means that Hive will stay in the 30s and 40s cent area for the next few months. Should support not hold, then price would probably fall to the teens area and make a lower low. This is not something we want to see. But I'll give you my answer for why it probably wont happen below.
First, here is an updated chart:
The answer lies in the 0.236 Fib Ratio!
Because the chart would get a bit crowded I will post a different one for each Fib channel. Have a look at where Hive corrected to. Each wave and subwave always heads back to the 0.236-0.3 area (shown here in red):
The first subwave:
The main wave (if we don't go sub 25 cents):
The current subwave:
The red area coincides exactly with the blue supporting trend line at 30 cents! This should be a "double support" and it seems more likely to me that price would make a reversal here than head under 30 cents. If so, I would expect price to continue this rough outline:
This is of course the more bullish scenario... If we break 30 cents, we could revisit the trend lines in the teens to the bottom. But for now, I think it is more likely that price will reverse and start a new uptrend to at least the horizontal resistance. If so, there is then a chance for getting rejected again, or finally go above it. This would be in late summer/fall.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!