Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
It's been 3 weeks since my last update on Bitcoin
And so far the "rocky road" has been confirmed. But it's even rockier than I thought. We have returned to the long support (which I have argued is the last support for this bull market) and price is just scraping at the bottom. It's the result from the huge uncertainties in the world currently and a shaky economy. Unfortunately Bitcoin is again linked to the legacy marked and has not so far untangled itself from it. We could probably assume that this will continue for the near future unless some major positive crypto news event happens. But the only thing I could find was that the Central African Republic adopted BTC as legal tender. So far it seems that this is only small news.
This is the chart from last post:
And we can see that the channel taking us to 100k has failed to keep price on target. Instead, we are back at rock bottom. Well, of course there is always room for further downward movement... Which brings us to the central question: will we still see a 100k Bitcoin summer?
So far I think it is still favorable, but time is running out. The time window seen in my charts is based on the last bull markets as the time from the halving event to the peak of the cycle. It has so far always extended and if we apply it to this cycle it should happen in the summer. But a rally to 100k would have to be rather steep now. While not unheard, in the current climate it seems increasingly unlikely. Nevertheless, price is still trading in an upward channel and we have had higher highs and higher lows since last year. If price breaks below this trend line we will surely revisit 30k which is sitting on the orange line.
If we zoom out we can see the bigger picture. This orange line is a macro support coming from 2019 and will most likely hold at least for the short term. Yet if this happens 100k won't happen in this summer.
There is another option though. What if price actually crashes to 30k and the recovers for the final bull push? This would surprise many as most would think that once we hit 30k we are heading for even lower prices. But we actually wouldn't have a newer low as the last low was at around 28k in June of 2021. This could be enough to push price up. But this would mean that the peak couldn't happen before late 2022, perhaps in Novemeber or December. My gut feeling tells me that this is actually a real possibility as we normally always have first a strong and unexpected sell off before the next major rally.
The moon cycle is also pretty bearish as we are expected to enter the bearish phase by tomorrow.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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