Prologue
Conflicts are back! And with that, wagons. But this time, each card airdropped to you destroys one of your wagons. And that is great for land, as resources will finally be vastly needed, so the price of these will hopefully go up. And wherever there is Land, there's space for calculations! So, let's dive into it.
Edit while writing - they already did go up! Sharply, I'm happy to add:
Important!
While I was writing this post, Azircon published a very informative article, too, which helps you to set up your waggons correctly: Click here!
Calculating Conflicts
First, an important data: In order to get 1 guaranteed copy, you need 800 Entries, meaning 80,000,000 points after 30 days. That translates to:
111,112 points per hour
Save that number, it's helpful when organizing your carts
There are a few things that are still unknown, for example:
What happens if you get more copies than you have wagons?
Theoretically, if you have 5x max GF legendary CA cards on a wagon, you have 262,500 points/h. Over the 30 days of each conflict, that would give you 1,890 entries, so 2 guaranteed cards per wagon.
With 5 Black Foil Legendaries (if somebody has that much money...), you'd get to a stunning 9,450 Entries, or 11 guaranteed cards!
That is based on my current distribution on my wagons, which I did just for fun:
It's still disappointing that the guaranteed copies went from 200 Entries in Rebellion to 800 Entries in CA. If I had know that, I might have not bought as much packs. Still, I'll see if I can get at least 3 copies of each card, which should be possible with my current line-up (which is going to be stronger as some cards are still rented out).
Currently, I get 250,000 points per hour, accumulating to 1,800 Tickets aka 2 guaranteed copies. In order to get 3 guaranteed copies, I need 333,334 points per hour. Not sure if I can get there, even with my pending Gold Foils. We'll see, maybe I'll get lucky in the packs I'm buying.
Wagon costs
This is fairly easy to calculate, and I'm sure many did already. But I'll try and add some more perspective to it, as there's one resource that is not easy to quantify as it's soulbound: Aura.
In my last post, I calculated that producing 1 aura costs more or less 1,1 DEC:
0,0005 Aura/PP/h brings us to a production of 4,95 Aura per hour. The cost for that is at 5,45 DEC/h, just like for 1 Research as PP is the same.
The announcement for the wagons & repair kits contained the following data:
- Craft a Wagon Kit in the Artisan Quarter
40,000 Wood
10,000 Stone
4,000 Iron
2,500 Aura
These kits will be tradeable and sellable on the non-card market.
You can easily see that the costs follow the logic of the production rate. In a perfect scenario, 40k wood is worth the same as 10k stone as 4k iron.
Aura, on the other hand, is different. Here are the current prices, taken from the BLT:
Cost per 1000 Resources
Grain: 9 DEC
Wood: 28,5 DEC
Stone: 129 DEC
Iron: 277 DEC
We need no grain, so just by trading from the market, the cost without Aura would be 1,140 DEC + 1,290 DEC + 1,108 DEC = 3,538 DEC
As the prices went up, I took the time to calculate Aura again (glad I have that Excel sheet!). The cost to produce 4.95 Aura is now at 6.29 DEC, so 1.27 DEC per Aura.
In theory, that would accumulate to 3,180 DEC, so the Wag would cost a total of 6,720 DEC, roughly, or $6.05 at current $/DEC - if the resources to craft are bought on the market, including those for aura.
If we assume that the resources are all produced by the creator of the kits, then it's overall around 10% less cost, so 6,000 DEC, roughly.
But then there's reality...
As calculated in my last post, Midnight Potions should sell for 44 DEC (now 51 DEC) in order to break even. Yet, they sell for 20-25 DEC, so roughly half the price. That means, there's around 50% loss on producing Aura calculated.
That stems from all the bonuses that can be achieved with terrain, totems, titles and Runi. So, that's why the current price is where it is:
Currently we pay 4,800 DEC for a wagon kit. That price will go up as son as conflicts start, and will fluctuate between the start (high), middle (low) and end (high) of the conflict. Also depending on how good the card is esteemed to be.
So, Wagons bring more profit than potions! But still lag behind selling the resources.
Conclusion
Managing wagons will be a strategy.
One wagon will become damaged for each airdropped card you receive, whether or not you used the wagon for this conflict.
What to conclude from that? Only repair the wagons you need. In order to save DEC and therefor resources and all that comes with a new wagon kit (they're not damaged, they're destroyed if it costs the same to build a new one...), you have to calculate well. Remember the 111,112 Points per hour. Try to always get multipliers from that:
222,223 - 333,334 - 444,445 and so on (yes, it's a periodic number, so the 2 doesn't multiply), very easy to remember. And please, please check on that calculation - I don't guarantee that I did it right:
800 Entries x 100,000 Points = 80,000,000 Points / 30 days / 24 hours = 111,112 Points Per hour
Rather have a few points more than less, obviously.
Though a little disappointed by the meager outcome that I will have despite a quite substantial buy-in in the pre-sale, I'm looking forward to the Conflicts. Never to forget - the more cost involved in getting 1 card copy, the more that will be worth.
Also, last time I got 1 copy of EMP, at a chance of only 0,018%. Maybe I'll get lucky again!
Former posts:
Calculating Land part 1 - How to get your ROI
Calculating Land part 2 - Are pools worth it?
Calculating Land part 3 - Organic Growth
Land Plot Efficiency for non-whales
Card-Production-Coefficient - Combining LPE and ROI
Renting for Land - at what cost?
Risks to my strategy
What do refined resources cost?
Thank you very much for reading, I hope you enjoyed it at least as much as I enjoyed writing :-D If you have any comments or feedback - please let me know! And don't forget to leave your own posts for me to curate. Thank you very much!
If you don't play the game yet, you can use my referral: Click here for referral :-)u