Hello everyone. It has been nearly three weeks since Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved. The inflow and outflow of money in ETFs still has not returned to normal. As time goes by, some balancing will occur among institutions holding spot Bitcoin. Of course, the number of Bitcoin whales will increase. However, companies whose ETFs are approved will be at the top of the list. Bitcoin trading will require more trading experience in the coming period. Especially those who have traded Forex before will adapt to this process more quickly. Let's list a few things we need to pay attention to during the transition period I mentioned.
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- We need to follow inflation data in the USA and Europe more carefully. Especially interest rate increase/interest rate decrease news will affect the price movements in Bitcoin more.
- Volatility in ETFs will increase on the closing dates of futures contracts when money is needed more. The price movements I mentioned have previously occurred in gold, silver, etc. It was happening in commodity funds.
- Weekends and public holidays will change the transaction volume and liquidity status of Bitcoin price. Of course, we cannot talk about the concept of holiday in Bitcoin trading. However, we need to be extra careful when ETFs are not traded. ETFs' trading opening times and trading closing times will become more important.
- Differences in management fees in ETFs, excessive money inflow/excessive money outflow, etc. Price differences that occur for various reasons will create arbitrage opportunities. It will change the volatility in Bitcoin with the arbitrage movements that will occur.
Companies holding GBTC and MSTR shares held Bitcoin before ETFs. With the approval of new ETFs, there are some advantages/disadvantages of holding BTC in these companies. Taking advantage of these advantageous differences, many investors recently sold their shares and switched to ETFs. For example; FTX sold the majority of GBTC shares. We need to closely follow any changes that may occur in the coming days. You can follow the Bitcoin transfers made by Grayscale company from the link below
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale
As I mentioned above, arbitrage opportunities will arise between ETFs for various reasons. At the same time, arbitrage opportunities will arise between ETFs and Bitcoin. We need to dig into more data to spot these price differences in advance. To give an example, you can follow the amount of BTC worth of GBTC stock from the link below.
https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc
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It will no longer be enough to just follow the Bitcoin price. We also need to follow the price movements of the approved funds. Especially the price movements of ETFs holding a lot of BTC at the time of starting trading will benefit us in terms of predictability. For example; It's time to add IBIT, GBTC, FBTC codes to our favorite charts.
Supply-demand regions and Fibonacci levels on Bitcoin charts will gain more importance. RSI, Bollinger Bands etc. Indicators will become more inconsistent. In this process, watching candlestick charts instead of using indicators will enable us to trade more consistently. I recently published a Bitcoin chart. I will try to publish analysis more frequently from now on.
Inflows and outflows in ETFs will balance out over time. Especially after the Bitcoin halving in April, price movements will be more consistent. Try to take into consideration the information I mentioned during this period. And keep researching. However, the data and visuals I mentioned are not an investment advice. And I'm not an investment advisor. It would be more beneficial if you view this information as an educational exercise. See you again. Stay tuned.