Market crash got you down?
Don't be an idiot!
Just buy the dip!
Buy the Dip
Buy the Dip
The fair market value of Bitcoin is $25k.
We are still floating over x2 the baseline.
Remember this.
Yeah I remembered but I didn't actually act on it...
Oops, I guess I should have mentioned that.
You Can't afford to buy the dip unless you're selling.
Basically 99% of crypto holders once again were greedy little goblins and not hedging their bets properly. Normally I have $0 to buy the dip when it comes, but this time I did a little better, so I'm feeling pretty good about that.
I have a little bit of money to buy the dip, but not much, which means I can't really buy at this level and I have to wait for the market to crash even more before I start buying back in.
CUB/BUSD: The ultimate hedge.
I am so mad at myself for not going all in on CUB/BUSD. This LP pool is seriously overpowered, and is constantly underestimated. If I had just dumped all my hedge plays into CUB/BUSD I would be sitting so pretty right now. Alas, I did all kinds of stupid shit, like buy RUNE and MATIC with Hive at $1.40 after the double-airdrop snapshot. I also bought a bunch of LEO at 24 cents, which also got absolutely wrecked and now sits at 15 cents. Damn... it... oh yeah and I bought SPS and DEC... another obvious fail.
CUB/BUSD owns them all.
I will not make this mistake again. The next time the market is bubbled I will hedge everything into CUB/BUSD. Why wouldn't I just avoid liquidity pools altogether and just hold stablecoins? That is a valid option for hedging, but I don't like it. Liquidity pools are way better and hedged in both directions with massive gains on the table.
CUB/BUSD is the perfect place to be, because CUB/BUSD even now has higher than 80% APR in returns. Seriously... it's insane. Being in CUB/BUSD is great because even if you're wrong and the market goes back up again... you still make a ton of money; the same absolutely can not be said by stacking stablecoins or, even worse, shorting the market as the price spikes up.
Capitulation Condolences.
I even decided just now while writing this post to punish myself a bit for being so greedy. I sold 18k CUB at ATL just now from the kingdom and put it into CUB/BUSD just in case the market crashes more (have 50k CUB left in kingdom). Remember: there's a big difference psychologically from panic dumping and slowly cutting ones losses and allowing capitulation to occur. We must have Diamond DCA hands in order to make money in this volatile landscape.
I'm actually pretty annoyed, because every time I exit the CUB LP pools I lose a ton of money. I always think the market is just about to spike and I'm always wrong. It becomes clear now that I can not rely on developers in crypto to launch their products on time. I was told there would be 3 CUB IDOs back in October 2021, yet here we are in late January. Where are the IDOs? LOL! FUCK! I made several bets that these things would have happened by now, and now those bets are WTF PWNED. DURP!
Soon™ indeed!
And this is not Khal's fault or any other developers fault. It is our fault for being greedy and doing the stupid ass degenerate shit that we do. It is no one's else's fault that we succumb to greed and gamble our asses off, then get caught with our pants down. The chickens will always come home to roost when we act this way.
How much more can the market crash?
About 20%.
It's so hilarious how people are now coming out of the woodwork to tell me we are going to drop back down to $20k... like... no... we aren't. These same people told me I was wrong when I was talking about the doubling curve as BTC traded above $60k.
No, it's different this time.
Bitcoin will not crash back to the doubling curve this time.
No, this time is different.
Am I arguing with brick walls over here?
It's not different.
Same shit.
Exactly the same.
And now this?
More fishtailing. People telling me it's going to crash BELOW the curve... like no... what the fuck... Bitcoin is going up in the most obvious straight line possible when charted on the logarithmic curve. How can nobody see this?
Seriously though
Could it be anymore fucking obvious?
Why is drawing a straight line so hard for these people? On the logarithmic chart, the doubling "curve" is reduced to a linear y = x straight line up over time. It is the easiest trendline to track of all time... and NOBODY is talking about it. Truly I must be taking crazy pills.
For a hill, men would kill, why they do not know.
I will die on this hill.
It is the most obvious trendline ever.
And everyone is totally oblivious to it.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
We are in an amazing spot right now!
Look at that! Bitcoin gonna be $50k by the end of the year.
Wow... amazing. I'm looking forward to it.
Although dominance could easily go up and only Bitcoin makes these gains. This is something we see all too often. STAY HEDGED. BUY BITCOIN.
In my four years of crypto, this is it.
This is the only trading metric I have ever found that carries any weight whatsoever. This is the only prediction that has held any weight: BITCOIN IS DOUBLING IN VALUE EVERY YEAR.
Deal with it.
If you think doubling every year is too slow... you're basically a greedy asshole. Stop being a greedy asshole in that case. Show some restraint and respect to the most amazing miracle unicorn asset of our entire lives.
The Bitcoin bears are doing victory laps right now like they always do. Let them, they can have fun being poor, but also be aware that the doubling curve is at $27k right now. That makes support at $30k basically uncrackable at this point due to the previous support we saw back in summer 2021.
But the crypto market is linked to the stock market! QQ!
This is another thing that people don't get. The crypto market is only linked to the stock market when the crypto market is bubbled. When we are at the doubling curve all we do is go up, slowly. Doesn't matter what the stock market is doing. Once we get to $30k: only up.
Legacy economy is FUCKED
This economy has been in a slow motion train wreck since March 2020. It's been so obvious how bad we are doing on every metric except the inflated stock market. Go watch @taskmaster4450's videos if you want more information on that. This thing is going to collapse sooner or later.
But that's the thing with Bitcoin.
Even when it dips under the curve it recovers quite quickly.
That's the best time to margin trade, and not before.
20%
Everything is primed to drop another 20%. BTC could go to $30k. BNB is a good buy between $250-$300. CUB itself can dip to 20 cents, which has been the floor for CUB for quite some time. We don't measure the floor of CUB in token price, but market cap. And at 20 cents, the market cap for CUB is $2M, and that's been the floor like half a dozen times already.
HIVE!
Oh sweet sweet Hive. I told everyone 80 cents would hold, and then we immediately flash crash to 70 cents a day later. Figures. The next huge support line Hive has is 50 cents, which would hurt quite a bit but... honestly I'm ready to buy in big between this 50-80 cent level. Hive is so volatile it's best to DCA these things.
If we assume BTC is going to crash to $30k, and we assume that Hive will test MA(200) on the Hive/BTC chart, that means we have massive support at 57 cents. Still, it looks pretty bleak, does it not?
Looking at the USD chart, we are freefalling below the MA(200) and it looks like we are about to get crushed by multiple death-crosses. I think it is very safe to say that Hive is going to be scraping rocks for a couple weeks, and we should be able to find a good place to reenter within a two or three weeks. Again, 50 cents is a rock bottom support line that I thought we weren't even gonna have to worry about... but that's Hive for you.
Buying in at 50 cents (if possible) would be pretty great, because that's an 85% drop from the peak, which is often the standard maximum bleed for these things unless a man-child sells a ninjamine to a vulture capitalist. Luckily that can't happen to us again, so 50 cents looking like a good target at the moment.
Again, it's more about timing. We're going to need to refactor in a week or two to see where we end up. Definitely need more info. However, I'm obviously feeling the sting of not selling more after the double airdrop at $1.40. Yikes... if only I had powered down twice instead of once and put all of that into CUB/BUSD instead of dicking around with half of it buying stupid shit. Lesson learned. Not gonna make that mistake again. We have all the tools we need to make smarter decisions going forward.
FEBRUARY
The first three weeks of Feb have always been bullish. Even during the COVID crisis the first two weeks were bullish. After seeing what I'm seeing right now, it would make even more sense that we'd at least get a dead-cat-bounce early-mid FEB. I'll report on this more once January is over.
Conclusion
This is the first time I've actually had money to buy the dip, and the only reason this is the case is because of CUBDEFI. High yield stable coin pairs like CUB/BUSD are an insanely overpowered hedge that most people ignore. It buys the dip automatically and sells the spike automatically, in addition to giving you 80% yield on half stable coins. Seriously, try it... it's incredible.
I'm very tempted to empty out my CUB/BUSD hedge fund right now, but unfortunately I didn't stack it aggressively enough... and now I need to stack even more into it right now on top of hoping for further crashes if I want to capitalize on dip-buying.
Be ready for another 20% loss across the board, and don't listen to people who are reeling from this crash, trying to tell you we are going back to $20k. Seriously, it's not happening. $30k is the floor at this point. Count on it. We can easily all in $30k without leverage, and if we have some freak macro event like COVID wrecks the market we can just leverage up and borrow USD to go long. That's actually what I'm hoping for. That's just free money. I highly doubt it will actually happen.
Because of how well the market did in November, taxes are going to hit this market like a ton of bricks in March, as is often the case. Again, I'm expecting a dead-cat-bounce in FEB with a rock-bottom scrape out in March like we often see. Elon Musk isn't going to ruin April for us this time, boys... that actually should be one of the best times to buy in 2022.
This crash has been an epic win for the doubling curve. I've been saying the longest we can be above the curve is around 18 months. How long have we been above the curve? Since November 2020. Our time was up. No more bubble for us. Too bad so sad.
The trick is to not let fear wash over us and get it in our head that Bitcoin will crash lower than the doubling curve. We paid our dues, we made it to $30k and we earned it. Fear not, or you'll fail to buy the dip when the time comes and miss out on those massive gains.
Oh also I paid @yabapmatt 100 Hive the other day because I lost my bet that BTC would be $100k before EOY. Made that bet back in FEB so he probably doesn't even remember but... a Lannister always pays his debts. Capitulation complete. Feels nice; very cleansing. Let's rebuild.