Good day Hiveians!
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It's hard to stay up to date with such a volatile market
All of crypto is falling hard and much sooner than I had expected. It is very unusual to have such a long and strong sell off. In the past bear markets we have always seen bear rallies; but this cycle marks an excpetion!
As such, Hive is now entering the parallel channel which we have talked about before. Just yesterday it looked like the ascending channel could hold, but with the crash continuing we are now looking at the parallel channel scenario. I made this scenario 2 weeks ago and made this chart:
The current chart is looking like this:
The parallel channel is yet to be confirmed. As of now it is only an idea with no data backing up the lower trend line. But from my experience I often saw the formation of parallel channels that had yet to be confirmed and eventually were. If so, we are looking at 25 cents for Hive in the next days. Since this is a 60%+ drop from the 68 cents high from the correction from ~$1 I highly believe this to be a bottom at least for the time being.
You can see in the chart many more interesting clues to why this might be the case.
the subwave of 2021 which took price to 16 cents has the similar shape/pattern as the bigger subwave we are currently in. At 25 cents it qualitatively looks like that this shape has been repeated. Prices could go lower of course, but it seems to be that this bear market is coming much faster to an end than most think.
there is almost no volume for this drop. In fact, the selling volume is so small that it is hardly discernible from the other weeks. This tells me that very few people are actually selling Hive, but since there are very few buyers it means that the price is dropping. Therefore, there has to be many "Hivers" that are simply hodling. Obviously we know this to be the case from people having powered up Hive, but it seems that even on exchanges there are not many people selling.
25 cents marks a 93% correction which is what I would label "max pain" and definitely qualifies for a full bear market correction.
As you can see from the first chart I would expect prices to stabilize at the 25 cents area, before finally transitioning into an impulse wave. However, this transition might take some time. The other and last scenario I talked about is the one where Hive goes back to 15 cents. But this has to be some sort of black swan event in the crypto or the fiat world.
For now let's stay positive that the worst has already come!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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