Some provoking thoughts (and why it's probably not like that)
Yes, Alt Season is upon us. I have little doubt that we will keep seeing BTC.D fall and eventually reach around 35-40% in the coming months or in 2026. But so far that drop hasn't really gone to many Alt-Alt coins... ETH has been eating that up and we can already see the couple of green weeks being erased with the latest down turn (lol I am not even getting frustrated anymore - is that a good sign?).
Last week I posted about Hive's structure and how it seemed that we were repeating the 2021-2024 time period again. So far the small "D" in the yellow area is coming along nicely. But that also means that this pattern is getting stronger the longer we stay in this zone. Not very exciting!
@digi-me pointed out:
Oh no your chart reminds me of what we spoke about years ago, repeat Steem fractal 2nd cycle 🙈
My thoughts @digi-me/the-final-wave-when-structure
Yeah, so looking at Steem's chart is not very inspiring... And it gets even worse that Hive has been moving in its shadow almost to the point!
What does that mean? But first the chart comparison:
Here is Hive with Steem drawn as the blue line. The main difference is in the 2021-2022 time period. But it's clear that we could shift that first peak and almost get a complete match. While Hive is outperforming Steem by a bit (only around a 7 cents difference atm), prices have been moving along the same pattern since late 2022.
But hold onto your hats - it gets even worse when we look at Steem's chart and overlay Hive. Here Hive is shown in blue. Yelp! It's exactly the same chart (relatively speaking and shifted)!
It's not even close to being debatable: Hive has exactly (again relatively) matched Steem's chart. We can even see the small "D" peak for Steem in 2021 as the "D" peak for Hive in 2025. It's just shifted!
So, obviously this doesn't forebode well, since Steem has not moved since 2021 - flat for 4 years. If that is the future for Hive... we'll be at 20 cents in 2029 :))
Obviously, the two chains are different
It's also not even close. Hive is far superior on a technical and fundamental level. But it seems that this hasn't really translated into price performance. Perhaps whales just don't see a fundamental difference...
Don't get me wrong; I am super excited for Hive's future:
- VSC
- LEO (DEX)
- SPK
- V4V
- SPL
the list goes on... But the chart looks awful (not that other Alt-Alts look different).
Conclusion
Although we are in an Alt season, I can't get excited about it. I am pretty sure that fatigue is setting in for many and I am sure this will translate into people rotating out of crypto. Not that crypto is going anywhere since mainstream adoption hasn't even started yet. But I am uncertain about the future for most Alts: Many, I suspect will simply never recover and fade out.
For Hive, at least, I am still optimistic since we are far from a dead chain. Quite the opposite actually. And that is what ultimately matters: do people actually use the chain? For Hive this is a clear yes! So I am certain we are not going to share the same fate as Steem; but perhaps the 20-30 cents area is where it's going to be at for quite some time.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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